Table 1. The spatio-temporal epidemic dynamics of CAVD in cases and ASR from 1990 to 2019.
| Characteristics | Incidence | Prevalence | Deaths | ||||||
|
2019 Cases X103 (95% UI) |
1990-2019 Change in case | 1990-2019 EAPC in ASR (95% CI) |
2019 Cases X103 (95% UI) |
1990-2019 Change in case | 1990-2019 EAPC in ASR (95% CI) | 2019 Cases X103 (95% UI) | 1990-2019 Change in case | 1990-2019 EAPC in ASR (95% CI) | |
| Global | 589.64(512.9-677.06) | 3.51 | 2.74(-1.8-7.5) | 9404.08(8079.6-10889.73) | 4.43 | 3.29(2.07-4.51) | 126.83(105.6-141.39) | 1.38 | 0.01(-6.94-7.49) |
| Sex | |||||||||
| Male | 313.8(271.31-360.92) | 3.51 | 2.74(-1.56-7.23) | 5027.26(4276.88-5861.59) | 4.62 | 3.36(2.22-4.51) | 54.17(47.77-58.67) | 1.21 | -0.03(-6.8-7.25) |
| Female | 275.83(239.87-317.14) | 3.51 | 2.74(-2.08-7.8) | 4376.82(3771.24-5082.8) | 4.22 | 3.18(1.89-4.49) | 72.65(57.76-84.3) | 1.52 | 0.07(-7.13-7.82) |
| SDI Quintiles | |||||||||
| Low SDI | 3.6(3.12-4.16) | 1.22 | -0.12(-10.22-11.11) | 9.68(7.61-12.14) | 2.3 | 1.41(-6.63-10.14) | 3.46(2.56-4.39) | 1.3 | 0.12(-10.12-11.54) |
| Low-middle SDI | 12.5(10.74-14.48) | 2.2 | 0.82(-9.04-11.75) | 67.26(54.36-81.97) | 6.18 | 4.2(-2.27-11.1) | 8.17(6.63-9.99) | 1.62 | 0.25(-10.79-12.65) |
| Middle SDI | 46.68(38.85-55.46) | 6.54 | 3.64(-6.15-14.46) | 658.55(529.93-800.78) | 20.59 | 7.96(3.47-12.63) | 10.48(9.43-11.74) | 1.45 | 0.04(-12.92-14.92) |
| High-middle SDI | 193.16(163.48-225.58) | 6.32 | 4.89(-0.11-10.13) | 3569.82(3002.41-4203.73) | 8.78 | 5.81(4.48-7.16) | 24.44(20.86-27.26) | 1.92 | 1.09(-7.79-10.83) |
| High SDI | 329.82(285.98-381.25) | 2.56 | 2.55(-0.2-5.37) | 5095.44(4402.07-5933.38) | 2.85 | 2.69(1.94-3.43) | 80.21(64.3-90.1) | 1.23 | -0.11(-5.15-5.2) |
| GBD Regions | |||||||||
| Central Asia | 2.65(2.18-3.11) | 7.02 | 5.21(-4.08-15.39) | 41.06(33.49-48.81) | 9.9 | 6.79(4.08-9.58) | 0.21(0.17-0.26) | 2.26 | 3.05(-16.95-27.86) |
| East Asia | 56.64(45.3-69.33) | 18.07 | 7.27(-5.16-21.33) | 891.02(707.25-1093.31) | 47.76 | 10.92(5.75-16.35) | 3.23(2.62-3.85) | 1.06 | -0.3(-20.39-24.85) |
| South Asia | 12.37(10.49-14.62) | 2 | 0.26(-9.01-10.48) | 30.19(23.68-37.63) | 2.62 | 1.44(-5.91-9.38) | 8.75(6.85-11.05) | 1.86 | 0.04(-10.37-11.67) |
| Southeast Asia | 3.29(2.78-3.94) | 3.62 | 1.84(-12.42-18.42) | 23.99(18.74-30.27) | 12.44 | 6.25(-2.65-15.97) | 1.7(1.4-2.13) | 1.59 | 0.34(-15.44-19.07) |
| High-income Asia Pacific | 88.6(73.61-107.12) | 1.91 | 1.75(-0.46-4.02) | 1715.7(1450.88-2042.13) | 2.65 | 1.95(1.38-2.51) | 13.57(9.08-16.51) | 2.17 | -0.9(-7.03-5.65) |
| Australasia | 20.17(17.13-23.51) | 15.01 | 7.42(4.21-10.74) | 320.82(272.23-381.06) | 31.48 | 9.92(8.74-11.12) | 1.87(1.51-2.11) | 1.42 | -0.31(-5.4-5.05) |
| Oceania | 0.13(0.11-0.15) | 3.64 | 1.68(-6.43-10.48) | 1.13(0.9-1.37) | 9.25 | 5.18(1.45-9.06) | 0.04(0.03-0.06) | 1.35 | -0.16(-10.47-11.33) |
| High-income North America | 123.57(106.45-142.33) | 1.53 | 1.2(-1.14-3.59) | 1492.89(1305.2-1727.5) | 1.17 | 0.85(0.19-1.51) | 27.19(22.16-30.24) | 1.07 | 0.08(-4.84-5.25) |
| Caribbean | 2.35(2.02-2.73) | 4.31 | 3.42(-2.69-9.91) | 45.47(37.69-54.85) | 12.54 | 6.91(4.75-9.11) | 0.52(0.42-0.63) | 1.04 | -0.01(-9.12-10) |
| Andean Latin America | 2.15(1.86-2.46) | 13.15 | 5.71(-3.1-15.32) | 33.35(28.25-39.02) | 39.13 | 9.95(6.07-13.97) | 0.29(0.24-0.35) | 1.46 | -0.35(-12.37-13.33) |
| Central Latin America | 5.75(4.95-6.62) | 4.47 | 2.3(-5.23-10.43) | 76.96(63.86-91.38) | 10 | 4.89(2.12-7.73) | 1.96(1.61-2.43) | 1.98 | 0.18(-9.81-11.28) |
| Southern Latin America | 8.73(7.73-9.92) | 7.02 | 5(0.19-10.04) | 101.89(87.12-120.8) | 17.54 | 8.39(6.18-10.64) | 2.84(2.46-3.16) | 1.05 | -0.14(-5.21-5.2) |
| Tropical Latin America | 6.59(5.61-7.68) | 2.38 | 0.68(-5.3-7.03) | 58.6(47.23-72.05) | 6.29 | 3.91(1.06-6.85) | 3.58(3.11-4.14) | 1.34 | -0.52(-7.6-7.1) |
| Central Europe | 57.28(48.87-67.32) | 4.84 | 5.73(2.73-8.82) | 1260.56(1067.65-1479.62) | 7.15 | 6.27(5.51-7.04) | 4.68(3.77-5.58) | 4.18 | 4.04(-5.43-14.47) |
| Eastern Europe | 68.42(55.23-82.91) | 7.62 | 7.33(2.9-11.96) | 1328.69(1065.7-1605.21) | 9.92 | 7.93(6.77-9.1) | 1.64(1.37-1.93) | 1.92 | 2.85(-13.7-22.57) |
| Western Europe | 116.51(98.95-138.35) | 6.3 | 5.73(1.28-10.38) | 1862.79(1577.56-2209.09) | 7.54 | 6.01(4.75-7.29) | 47.89(39.52-53.66) | 1.27 | 0.42(-4.39-5.46) |
| North Africa and Middle East | 7.07(5.98-8.35) | 2.47 | 0.71(-7.35-9.47) | 54.3(43.23-66.78) | 4.6 | 2.76(-0.95-6.6) | 3.82(3.19-4.44) | 1.21 | -0.53(-9.41-9.22) |
| Central Sub-Saharan Africa | 0.41(0.36-0.47) | 1.52 | 0.12(-9.2-10.39) | 0.8(0.62-1.01) | 2.24 | 1.09(-7.52-10.5) | 0.41(0.29-0.58) | 1.42 | 0.12(-9.06-10.22) |
| Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa | 1.17(1.01-1.35) | 1.33 | 0.02(-9.9-11.04) | 2.6(2-3.27) | 2.41 | 1.45(-7.33-11.05) | 1.2(0.95-1.53) | 1.08 | -0.07(-9.49-10.34) |
| Southern Sub-Saharan Africa | 4.64(3.72-5.7) | 9.52 | 5.22(-0.79-11.6) | 57.41(44.28-73.39) | 23.27 | 8.83(6.18-11.55) | 0.43(0.37-0.48) | 0.96 | 0.21(-9.26-10.68) |
| Western Sub-Saharan Africa | 1.16(0.99-1.37) | 1.3 | 0.06(-11.82-13.54) | 3.87(3-4.88) | 1.98 | 0.9(-6.84-9.29) | 1.02(0.71-1.42) | 0.99 | -0.3(-12.11-13.09) |
Abbreviations: CAVD, calcific aortic valve disease; ASR, age standardized rate; SDI, socio-demographic index; GBD, global burden of disease UI, uncertainty interval; EAPC, estimated annual percentage change; CI, confidence interval.