Table 1.
Full multivariable model with spatial fixed effect (county) of the 5-year future risk of bTB breakdown for the herd derestricted in 2013.
| Predictor | Odds Ratio | Std. Err. | z | P > |z| | Lower 95%CI | Upper 95%CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cat. Index BD lesion | ||||||
| no lesion | 1.000 | |||||
| Lesion reported | 1.008 | 0.091 | 0.080 | 0.933 | 0.844 | 1.202 |
| Cat. Index BD reactors | ||||||
| 0 1 | 1.224 | 0.115 | 2.150 | 0.031 | 1.018 | 1.471 |
| 1 | 1.000 | |||||
| 2 | 1.176 | 0.127 | 1.500 | 0.133 | 0.952 | 1.452 |
| 3 | 1.272 | 0.183 | 1.670 | 0.095 | 0.959 | 1.686 |
| 4 | 1.214 | 0.236 | 0.990 | 0.320 | 0.829 | 1.777 |
| 5+ | 1.161 | 0.159 | 1.090 | 0.274 | 0.888 | 1.518 |
| Cat. Index BD length (days) | ||||||
| (17–129) | 1.000 | |||||
| (130–143) | 1.097 | 0.126 | 0.810 | 0.420 | 0.876 | 1.374 |
| (144–159) | 1.216 | 0.142 | 1.680 | 0.093 | 0.968 | 1.528 |
| (160–229) | 1.059 | 0.121 | 0.500 | 0.616 | 0.847 | 1.324 |
| (230–2918) | 1.489 | 0.173 | 3.440 | 0.001 | 1.187 | 1.869 |
| Cat. Prev. bd | ||||||
| No prev. BD (<5 years) | 1.000 | |||||
| Prev. BD | 1.200 | 0.094 | 2.340 | 0.020 | 1.030 | 1.399 |
| log(herd-size) | 1.487 | 0.059 | 10.030 | <0.001 | 1.376 | 1.607 |
| Herd-type | ||||||
| Beef | 1.000 | |||||
| Dairy | 0.874 | 0.095 | −1.240 | 0.215 | 0.707 | 1.081 |
| Other | 0.550 | 0.098 | −3.340 | 0.001 | 0.387 | 0.781 |
| Suckler | 0.758 | 0.070 | −3.000 | 0.003 | 0.633 | 0.909 |
| County | ||||||
| Carlow | 1.000 | |||||
| Cavan | 1.565 | 0.558 | 1.260 | 0.209 | 0.778 | 3.146 |
| Clare | 1.322 | 0.460 | 0.800 | 0.423 | 0.668 | 2.615 |
| Cork | 1.217 | 0.404 | 0.590 | 0.555 | 0.634 | 2.334 |
| Donegal | 1.014 | 0.361 | 0.040 | 0.969 | 0.505 | 2.036 |
| Dublin | 3.209 | 1.635 | 2.290 | 0.022 | 1.182 | 8.710 |
| Galway | 0.967 | 0.340 | -0.100 | 0.924 | 0.485 | 1.927 |
| Kerry | 1.172 | 0.427 | 0.440 | 0.663 | 0.574 | 2.393 |
| Kildare | 1.678 | 0.689 | 1.260 | 0.208 | 0.750 | 3.751 |
| Kilkenny | 1.477 | 0.523 | 1.100 | 0.271 | 0.738 | 2.955 |
| Laois | 1.194 | 0.457 | 0.460 | 0.643 | 0.564 | 2.529 |
| Leitrim | 1.269 | 0.563 | 0.540 | 0.591 | 0.532 | 3.029 |
| Limerick | 1.432 | 0.515 | 1.000 | 0.319 | 0.707 | 2.898 |
| Longford | 0.430 | 0.204 | −1.780 | 0.075 | 0.170 | 1.090 |
| Louth | 1.465 | 0.626 | 0.900 | 0.371 | 0.635 | 3.384 |
| Mayo | 0.941 | 0.354 | −0.160 | 0.871 | 0.451 | 1.965 |
| Meath | 1.334 | 0.468 | 0.820 | 0.412 | 0.670 | 2.655 |
| Monaghan | 1.184 | 0.460 | 0.440 | 0.663 | 0.553 | 2.536 |
| Offaly | 1.330 | 0.496 | 0.770 | 0.444 | 0.641 | 2.762 |
| Roscommon | 1.530 | 0.542 | 1.200 | 0.230 | 0.764 | 3.063 |
| Sligo | 1.346 | 0.514 | 0.780 | 0.436 | 0.637 | 2.843 |
| Tipperary | 1.199 | 0.417 | 0.520 | 0.602 | 0.606 | 2.372 |
| Waterford | 0.638 | 0.270 | −1.060 | 0.288 | 0.279 | 1.461 |
| Wicklow | 2.677 | 0.970 | 2.720 | 0.007 | 1.317 | 5.445 |
| Constant | 0.075 | 0.028 | −6.920 | <0.001 | 0.036 | 0.156 |
1 Slaughterhouse case.