Table 2.

Results for the run with median of the total cumulative number of infections

Scenarios	Median of cumulative infections at 150 days	Avoided median number of cases*	Reducing the estimated median number of infections (%)
1 (baseline)	420 520 763	–	–
2	385 399 261	35 121 502	8.35
3	5 809 925	414 710 838	98.62
4	4 832 306	415 688 457	98.85
5	417 781 694	2 739 069	0.65
6	5 270 174	415 250 589	98.75
7	133 575	420 387 188	99.97
Actual reporting†	5 708 365	414 812 398	98.64

*Compared with infections in baseline 1.

†Number of confirmed cases were derived from WHO data reported on 29 May 2020 (150th day since 1 January 2020).