Table 1.

Table giving the log scores and ΔDIC values for a selection of the BYM2 spatial models fitted. ΔDIC values are calculated relative to the model with all three interactions included, which was found to tbe the best fitting of the models considered. Main terms for each of the vector–host ratio (VHR), gonotropic cycle (GC, reciprocal of the biting rate) and viral replication rate (VRR) are included in all models. Inclusion of a particular variable denotes inclusion of both linear and quadratic terms for that variable and inclusion of an interaction denotes inclusion of all possible interactions between both the linear and quadratic terms of those two variables e.g. linear × linear, linear × quadratic and quadratic × quadratic between the two separate variables but not linear × quadratic within a given variable.

model no.	interactions included	log score	ΔDIC
1	GC × VRR + GC × VHR + VRR × VHR	0.46	0
2	GC × VHR + VRR × VHR	0.49	−7312
3	GC × VRR + GC × VHR	0.52	−15 188
4	GC × VRR + VRR × VHR	0.60	−34 389
5	GC × VHR	0.58	−29 974
6	VRR × VHR	0.68	−55 104
7	GC × VRR	0.91	−11 4104
8	—	1.01	−14 1039