Table 2.

Adaptation of “Forecast Hesitancy” as compared with SAGE’s (2014) three Cs that factor into “Virus Hesitancy”

Application of Three Cs to Forecast Hesitancy	Application of Three Cs to Virus Hesitancy
Confidence [or Trust, in self or others]	Confidence [Trust] in self or others
Lack of trust in science (can’t forecast intensity)	Lack of trust in vaccine safety (side effects, allergies)
Lack of trust in the government (Trump’s “SharpieGate”)	Lack of trust in vaccine effectiveness and a preference
Lack of trust in the forecasters (tell gov. before public)	Lack of trust in introduced vs. acquired immunity
Lack of trust in experts (previous erroneous forecasts)	Lack of trust in government, drug corporations, data
	Lack of trust in the severity of the threat
Complacency [perceived risk]	Complacency [perceived risk]
El Niño, for example, involves a series of forecasts as early warning; it is a creeping hydromet hazard	Creates risk by increasing tendency to do nothing or to rely on top-down process for protection
Not conducive to personalities that tend to be . . .	Not conducive to personalities that tend to be . . .
Risk-taking	Unconcerned about health because healthy
Reliant on government (“protect us”)	Fearful of needles
Discounting of lessons from previous events	Certain of acquired immunity from past infection
	Unconcerned about serious illness (due to youth)
Convenience [access]	Convenience [access]
Communication ranges from good to poor	Access to vaccine
Most at-risk places/people often isolated from constant media reporting	Distance to travel for vaccination
Timing of forecast(s) and remaining lead time from the last of the early warnings can be problematic	Access to transportation