Table 1.
Model parameters
| Parameter | URTI point estimate (±25%) | CD point estimate (±25%) | Conjunctivitis point estimate (±25%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prescribing probabilities (%) | |||
| Prescription drug | 30.20[16] (22.65–37.75) | 78.753,[17] (59.06–98.44) | 46.40[18, 19] (34.80–58.00) |
| Non-prescription drug | 59.801,[16] (44.85–74.75) | 8.753,[17] (6.56–10.94) | 33.60[18, 19] (25.20–42.00) |
| No drug therapy | 10.001 (7.50–12.50) | 12.503,[17] (9.38–15.63) | 20.00[18] (0.00–40.00) |
| Prescription drug – PAS pharmacist | 40.201 (30.15–37.75) | 88.751 (66.56–100.00) | 56.401 (42.30–70.50) |
| Non-prescription drug – PAS pharmacist | 54.801 (41.10–68.50) | 3.751 (2.81–4.69) | 28.601 (21.45–35.75) |
| No drug therapy – PAS pharmacist | 5.001 (3.75–6.25) | 7.501 (5.63–9.38) | 15.001 (11.25–18.75) |
| Care-seeking probabilities (%) | |||
| Seeking care from pharmacist | 38.00[8] (0.00–100.00) | ||
| Seeking care from physician – ED | 10.001 (7.50–12.50) | 3.20[20] (2.40–4.00) | 13.00[21] (9.75–16.25) |
| Seeking care from physician – Walk-in clinic | 52.501 (39.38–65.63) | 59.301 (44.48–74.13) | 49.501 (37.10–61.90) |
| Seeking care from physician – FMD office | 37.504 (28.13–46.88) | ||
| Seeking care from pharmacist for a second visit | 10.001 (7.50–12.50) | ||
| Treatment outcome probabilities (%) | |||
| Getting better after prescription drug | 90.00[16] (67.50–100.00) | 50.003 (37.50–62.50) | 63.10[16] (47.30–78.90) |
| Getting better after non-prescription drug | 75.001 (56.25–93.75) | 50.003 (37.50–62.50) | 56.401 (42.30–70.50) |
| Getting better after no drug therapy | 60.001 (45.00–75.00) | 50.003 (37.50–62.50) | 49.70[22] (37.30–62.10) |
| Miscellaneous probabilities (%) | |||
| FMD billing by fee-for-service | 72.10[23] (54.08–90.13) | ||
| FMD billing by capitation | 27.90[23] (20.93–34.88) | ||
| Drug coverage by government | 26.002 (–) | ||
| Costs ($CAD) | |||
| Pharmacist consultation fee | 18.001 (13.50–22.50) | ||
| Prescription medication4 | 7.803 (5.85–9.75) | ||
| ED visit5 | 172.94[24] (129.71–216.18) | ||
| Walk-in clinic visit6 | 27.70[25] (20.78–34.63) | ||
| FMD billing by FFS6 | 27.70[25] (20.78–34.63) | ||
| FMD billing by CAP7 | 0.001 (–) |
$CAD, Canadian dollar; PAS, prescription-attached scenario; ED, emergency department; FMD, family physician; FDS, fee-detached scenario; FAS, fee-attached scenario; MA, modelling assumption; CIHI, Canadian Institute for Health Information; URTI, upper respiratory tract infection; CD, contact dermatitis.
1Modelling assumption; 2Unpublished data; 3Expert opinion; 4Based on 26% of Ontarians receive drug coverage through the government (unpublished work by Alsabbagh et al.); 5Cost adjusted for inflation to 2019; 6Assumed 50% minor assessment and 50% intermediate assessment; 7CAP: Capitation payment, where physicians are paid a set amount per registered person per time unit to provide care when needed (i.e. regardless if the person seeks care or not).