Table 1:

Model parameters

Chance parameter	Median (IQR)	Values for sensitivity analysis	References
VATS decortication
Mortality	0.08 (0.06-0.10)	0.06, 0.10	8-10,13
Morbidity	0.11 (0.05-0.22)	0.05, 0.22	8,11,14
Incomplete resolution req. open decortication	0.11 (0.08-0.17)	0.08, 0.17	8-12
Open decortication
Mortality	0.16	0.05, 0.25	10
Morbidity	0.45	0.25, 0.65	14
Fibrinolysis
Complete resolution	0.70 (0.48-0.80)	0.48, 0.80	7,8,15-25
VATS (vs open)	0.70*	0.60, 0.80	-
Failure to completely resolve
Observation alone	0.10*	0.01, 0.20	-
Complete resolution	0.12	0.05, 0.25	15
Chronic fibrothorax	0.05	0.01, 0.20	15
Elective open decortication	0.80*	0.60, 0.80	-
Repeat fibrinolysis	0.20*	0.05, 0.35	-
Complete resolution	0.50*	0.25, 0.75	-
After observation, complete resolution	0.15*	0.05, 0.25	-
Elective open decortication	0.85*	0.75, 0.95	-
Bleeding requiring operative intervention	0.10	0.01, 0.25	17,18,24,26
Proceed to operation	0.70*	0.55, 0.85	-
VATS	0.70*	0.60, 0.80	-
Incomplete resolution req. open decort.	0.30*	0.20, 0.40	-
Bleeding requiring operative intervention	0.03 (0.02-0.04)	0.02, 0.04	7,15,17,18,24,26

IQR, interquartile range

^*Expert opinion due lack of published evidence

IQR included where available. Due to insufficient data on outcomes of VATS or open decortication specifically after failed fibrinolysis or bleeding related to fibrinolysis, these same chance parameters are used throughout the rest of the tree