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. 2021 May 26;11:11029. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-90347-8

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© The Author(s) 2021

Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Outbreak prediction accuracy of the stochastic SEIRD model with dynamic and static effective reproduction numbers. This figure depicts the AUROC corresponding to 30-day outbreak predictions over 230 daily rolling windows from 15 May 2020 to 31 Dec 2020, and averaged over the selected 101 countries. The solid blue line corresponds to forecasts using the daily updated reproduction number averaged over the last five days previous to the time of prediction. The dashed blue line corresponds to forecasts in which the daily reproduction number remains static as the average over 11–15 May 2020.