Table 1.

Out-of-sample (OOS) accuracy of IMC choice predictions

	Model	OOS R2 (mean ± SD)	OOS LL (mean ± SD)	Comparison with RCV model
Proposed model	Retrieval-constrained Valuation (RCV)	0.94 ± 0.04	−1,088 ± 223	—
Single-process models	Valuation-only*	0.69 ± 0.18	−1,150 ± 246	P < 0.001
	Retrieval-only†	0.53 ± 0.15	−1,225 ± 169	P < 0.001
	Take-the-first (TTF)	0.22 ± 1.33	−1,285 ± 342	P < 0.001
Mixture models	Valuation + Accessibility	0.67 ± 0.12	−1,158 ± 227	P < 0.001
	Valuation + TTF	0.77 ± 0.17	−1,125 ± 225	P < 0.001

Mean and SD across categories are presented for both OOS R² and Log Likelihood (LL). Higher R² and less negative LL indicate better prediction performance. Comparison with the RCV model is based on OOS R² and LL, respectively, across categories via permutation test.

^*Perfect retrieval of all available options.

^†Constrained retrieval, uniform value.