Table A1.
Generalized linear model selection, and corresponding model coefficients, to investigate patterns of damages caused by bears to farms in the National Park of Abruzzo Lazio and Molise, central Italy, 2005–2015. Only candidate models with ∆AICc ≤ 2 are shown. Model coefficients were estimated through full averaging limited to models with ∆AICc ≤ 2. R2: Nagelkerke Pseudo-R2 (averaged models only); K: number of estimable parameters; LL: log-likelihood; AICc: Akaike information criterion adjusted for small sample sizes; ∆AICc = (AICc) − (AICc)min; w: Akaike weight.
| Model Structure | R2 | K | LL | AICc | ∆AICc | w |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Type of production + Mgt zone + Prevention + Season + Season*Type of production | 0.958 | 6 | −1061.73 | 2170.3 | 0.00 | 0.734 |
| Type of production + Mgt zone + Prevention + Season + Year + Season*Type of production | 0.958 | 7 | −1061.61 | 2172.3 | 2.03 | 0.266 |
| Model Coefficients | β | SE | 95% Confidence Interval | |||
| Lower | Upper | |||||
| (intercept) | 3.160 | 8.925 | 0.773 | 1.416 | ||
| Type of production 1 (Small animals) | −1.090 | 0.280 | −1.638 | −0.543 | ||
| Type of production (Cultivations) | 0.006 | 0.191 | −0.368 | 0.378 | ||
| Type of production (Livestock) | 0.503 | 0.179 | 0.151 | 0.852 | ||
| Mgt zone (ZPE) 2 | 0.560 | 0.051 | 0.460 | 0.660 | ||
| Prevention (Yes) 3 | −1.786 | 0.094 | −1.970 | −1.604 | ||
| Season (Spring) 4 | −0.887 | 0.252 | −1.383 | −0.395 | ||
| Season (Early summer) | −1.020 | 0.266 | −1.541 | −0.500 | ||
| Season (Late summer) | −0.371 | 0.244 | −0.852 | 0.106 | ||
| Season (Winter) | −1.372 | 0.599 | −2.546 | −0.199 | ||
| Year | −0.001 | 0.004 | −0.008 | 0.075 | ||
| Season (Spring)*Type of production (Small animals) | 1.032 | 0.418 | 0.213 | 1.853 | ||
| Season (Early summer)*Type of production (Small animals) | 2.001 | 0.371 | 1.275 | 2.728 | ||
| Season (Late summer)*Type of production (Small animals) | 1.700 | 0.349 | 1.018 | 2.385 | ||
| Season (Winter)*Type of production (Small animals) | 2.147 | 1.192 | −0.193 | 4.480 | ||
| Season (Spring)*Type of production (Cultivations) | −15.19 | 491.94 | −980.93 | 950.56 | ||
| Season (Early summer)*Type of production (Cultivations) | 1.247 | 0.301 | 0.657 | 1.838 | ||
| Season (Late summer)*Type of production (Cultivations) | 1.406 | 0.273 | 0.873 | 1.941 | ||
| Season (Winter)*Type of production (Cultivations) | 1.320 | 0.755 | −0.157 | 2.802 | ||
| Season (Spring)*Type of production (Livestock) | 0.437 | 0.288 | −0.124 | 1.003 | ||
| Season (Early summer)*Type of production (Livestock) | 1.551 | 0.285 | 0.994 | 2.109 | ||
| Season (Late summer)*Type of production (Livestock) | 1.325 | 0.262 | 0.813 | 1.841 | ||
| Season (Winter)*Type of production (Livestock) | −0.776 | 0.690 | −2.128 | 0.577 | ||
| Season (Spring)*Type of production (Livestock) | 0.437 | 0.288 | −0.124 | 1.003 | ||
1 Reference: Beehives; 2 Reference: Park; 3 Reference: No prevention; 4 Reference: Autumn. *: interaction (multiplicative effect).