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. 2021 May 27;11:11209. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-90762-x

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© The Author(s) 2021

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Numbers of suicides, emergency department (ED) presentations, and patients disengaging from services per year under the baseline scenario (i.e., business as usual) and the optimal intervention scenario for each outcome (see Table 2 for intervention scenario details). The dotted lines show estimates of numbers of suicides and ED presentations published by NSW Health (http://www.healthstats.nsw.gov.au) and the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2019). Model outputs from the sensitivity analyses, incorporating uncertainty in the intervention effects and the duration of increased distress onset due to the COVID-19 pandemic, are shown as lighter solid lines; the heavier solid lines show model outputs obtained assuming the default parameter values.