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. 2021 May 27;11:11209. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-90762-x

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© The Author(s) 2021

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Projected reductions (%, relative to business as usual) in total numbers of suicides, mental health-related emergency department (ED) presentations, and patients disengaging from services in the Hunter New England Local Health District (LHD) over the period 2021–2031. Results are shown for the optimal intervention scenario(s) for each outcome (see Table 2 for intervention scenario details). Mean percentage reductions and 95% intervals reported in the rightmost column were derived from the distributions of projected outcomes calculated in the sensitivity analyses (note that the 95% intervals provide a measure of the impact of uncertainty in the assumed intervention and pandemic effects, but should not be interpreted as confidence intervals). Numbers of cases (i.e., suicides, ED presentations, and disengagements from services) prevented were obtained assuming the default parameter values. Mean percentage reductions and 50% and 95% intervals are plotted on the right.