Table 2.

Performance of prediction model among study samples

Study samples	Number of patients	Number of events	Events rate (95% CI), %	Predicted events number	Discrimination		Calibration
					AUC (95% CI)	Predictive ability* (median rate of lowest to highest decile)	Slope (95% CI)	Intercept (95% CI)
Development	8010	935	11.67 (10.98 to 12.40)	935	0.848 (0.834 to 0.864)	0.75% to 47.57%	0.98 (0.96 to 0.99)	0.003 (0.001 to 0.005)
External validation #1	4485	395	8.81 (7.99 to 9.67)	283.1	0.738 (0.703 to 0.768)	0.75% to 25.58%	0.84 (0.70 to 0.98)	0.035 (0.024 to 0.045)
External validation #2	11 223	1285	11.45 (10.87 to 12.05)	1087.3	0.798 (0.783 to 0.814)	0.75% to 40.1%	0.97 (0.90 to 1.04)	0.020 (0.014 to 0.027)

*Observed rates in deciles determined by estimated model.

AUC, area under ROC curve.