Table 3.
Model variables and data collected to estimate the costs of the 2013 aflatoxin incident for different stakeholders in the Netherlands
| Variable | Abbreviation | Unit | Estimations | Source | Estimation/distribution used in the model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tonnes of contaminated maize imported from Eastern Europe in 2012 | import | t |
1) 143,000 2) 225,000 3) 300,000 |
1) 45,000 t + 45,000 t + 53,000 t 2) 3 ships each between 70,000 and 80,000 t (1) 3) 4 ships (RASFF, 2013), 75,000 t (1) |
Triangular (143,000; 300,000; 225,00) |
| Value maize from Eastern Europe in 2012 | c_import | €/t |
1) 220–260 2) 244–255 3) 279–255 |
1) FOB Black sea region (Potori and Józsa 2014), 20 €/t for maritime transport added (2) 2) Prices between Nov 2012 and Jan 2013 (3) 3) Prices between Aug and Dec 2012 (Agrimatie 2012) |
Normal (251; 17) |
| Value maize intended for use as biogas | c_biogas | €/t | 30 | (Boerenbond 2014) | 30 |
| Percentage imported maize processed | q_feed | % |
1) 22 2) 28 |
10,000 t (batch 1) + 10,000 t (batch 2), which is 22% (NVWA 2014) (5) |
Normal (0.25;0.063) |
| Percentage of total feed production used as dairy cattle feed | q_dairy_feed | % | 22 |
The Netherlands, 2013 (FEFAC 2018) |
0.22 |
| Percentage of maize in dairy cattle feed | q_maize | % |
1) 10–20 2) 10 |
(Devun et al. 2014; van der Fels-Klerx and Camenzuli 2016) (4) |
Uniform (0.10;0.20) |
| Cost price compound feed | c_feed | €/t |
1) 240–300 2) 305 |
(Remmelink 2018) (4) |
Triangular (220; 279; 251) |
| Percentage feed recalled | q_recall | % | 60 | (4) (5) (6) | Normal (0.60; 0.15) |
| Recall costs | c_recall | €/t | 58 | (4) (5) (6) | Normal (58; 14.5) |
| Costs destruction feed | c_destr | €/t | 5 | (4) (5) (6) | Normal (5; 1.25) |
| Costs testing feed for AFB1 | c_test_feed | €/t | 5 | (4) (5) (6) | Normal (5; 1.25) |
| Costs compensation dairy farms | c_comp | €/t | 84 | (4) (5) (6) | Normal (84; 21) |
| Number of dairy farms exceeding the legal AFM1 level | nb_farms_cont | n | 4 | ( Veeteelt 2013) | 6 |
| Number of days a farm was blocked in case of contaminated milk | nb_days | n | 14 | (2) | 14 |
| Number of dairy cows per farm | nb_cows | n |
Min: 1 Mean: 83 Max: 400 |
(CBS 2017; NZO 2016) | Triangular (1; 400; 83) |
| Litres of milk produced | l_milk | l/day | 21 | (The Daily Milk 2017) (5) | 21 |
| Price per litre milk | c_milk | (€/l) | 0.39 |
Average milk price in the Netherlands in 2013 (EU, 2017) |
0.39 |
(1)Dutch Association Feed Companies, personal communication
(2)Own estimation
(3)Dutch trading company, personal communication
(4)Dutch Feed company, personal communication
(5)Calculation based on information available
(6)Assumption: RSD of 25%