Figure 4.

ASMODEE applied to the COVID-19 cases reported through the NHS Pathways (111/999 calls) for the CCG Leicester City during June and July and the first 10 days of August 2020. Each plot corresponds to a different reference date, with the algorithm applied to the preceding 42 days (including the reference day). k was fixed to 7 days, alpha was set to 0.05. Considered temporal trends models included: Poisson GLM with constant mean, linear regression with linear trend in time, negative binomial GLM with log-linear trend in time, the same with a ‘day of the week’ effect (distinguishing weekends, Mondays and other days), and the latter with an additional interaction to allow for different slopes by day of the week. Automated model selection using AIC was used for all analyses.