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. 2021 May 31;376(1829):20200275. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2020.0275

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© 2021 The Authors.

Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.

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Figure 3. — Sensitivity analyses. Plots show the relative height of the second peak versus the first peak I_v as a function of relevant parameter value. Dotted lines represent peaks of equal height. (a) Relative values of R_e in P3/P4. The second peak is higher for a relative value greater than 1.22, corresponding to R_e > 1.99. (b) Adherence in P3/P4. 100% adherence equates to P4 $R_{e}^{v} = 0.4$ (baseline value); 0% adherence equates to a pre-lockdown value of $R_{e}^{v} = 1.7$ . The second peak is higher for adherence less than 74%. (c) R_e in all phases. P1 R_e values are shown; R_e values in other phases are scaled accordingly. The second peak is higher for P1 R_e < 1.63. (d) Duration of immunity (expressed as 1/ζ). The second peak is higher for 1/ζ < 54 days.