Table. Estimated week when COVID-19 hospitalisations will exceed the peak of the second wave in France and two French regions, March–May 2021.
| Peak weekly hospitalisations in the second wave | B.1.1.7 transmissibility advantage | Strengthening of SD measures |
Curfew (as in week 4 of 2021) | Relaxation of SD measures |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 16,000 weekly hospitalisations | 54% | NR | Week 13 (12–14) | Week 12 (11–12) |
| 59% | After week 15 | Week 13 (12–13) | Week 12 (11–12) | ||
| 65% | Week 15 (13–16) | Week 12 (11–13) | Week 12 (11–12) | ||
| Île-de-France | 3,000 weekly hospitalisations | 54% | NR | Week 12 (11–12) | Week 11 (11–12) |
| 59% | NR | Week 12 (11–12) | Week 11 (11–12) | ||
| 65% | NR | Week 11 (11–12) | Week 11 (11–12) | ||
| Nouvelle Aquitaine | 800 weekly hospitalisations | 54% | NR | Week 16 (14–20) | Week 12 (12–14) |
| 59% | NR | Week 15 (13–19) | Week 12 (11–13) | ||
| 65% | Week 15 (12–17) | Week 13 (12–15) | Week 11 (11–12) | ||
COVID-19: coronavirus disease; NR: not reached; SD: social distancing.
Projections after winter school holidays consider three scenarios. From left to right: strengthening of SD measures scenario, equivalent to the second lockdown in November 2020; curfew scenario, estimated in week 4 and assuming no additional changes; relaxation of SD measures scenario, compatible with the situation at the start of 2021 before increased restrictions. Results correspond to a 59%, 54% and 65% higher transmissibility of the variant compared with the previously circulating virus (median and values of the 95% confidence interval of the estimate for France) and to the 100,000–200,000 daily doses rhythm (see Supplement for details and results from other daily rhythms). Uncertainties (in brackets) refer to 95% probability ranges; NR indicates that the peak level is not predicted to be reached before week 16, the end of the time period under study. The results do not integrate the effect of more stringent measures recently implemented to curb the third wave, and do not include Easter school holidays, nor seasonal effects.