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. 2021 Jun 1;11:11453. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-90839-7

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© The Author(s) 2021

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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GHG emissions scenarios for Germany compared to 2018 coal mix emissions; left panel using GWP₂₀, right GWP₁₀₀. The “NIR scenario” with 0.45% methane leakage rate is based on National Inventory reports and the “Other reports scenario” with 0.32% methane leakage rate from import countries from life-cycle-analysis studies. For comparison, two additional scenarios are presented: a world-wide average “1.7% methane leakage rate scenario” based on IEA, and an upper bound “2.5% scenario”, including e.g. also higher supply-chain CO₂ emissions from long-distance pipeline or LNG transport.