TABLE 5.
Mortality probabilities associated with events and health states in the Core Obesity Model
| Model parameter | Estimate mortality probability applied in year of onset | Estimate source(s) | Estimate applied in years post onset a | Estimate source(s) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Female | Male | ||||
| Myocardial infarction | 30.00% | 32.00% | BHF 36 | RR: 1.30 | Johansson et al. 37 |
| Unstable angina | 30.00% | 32.00% | BHF 36 | RR: 1.30 | Johansson et al. 37 |
| Stroke | 24.70% | 17.10% | BHF 36 | RR: 2.00 | Brammas et al. 38 |
| Knee replacement | 0.30% | Singh et al. 39 and CRUK 40 | NA | NA | |
| Cancer: | Probability: 4.31% | CRUK 40 | |||
| Colon | 30.11% | CRUK 40 | |||
| Postmenopausal endometrial | 10.54% | CRUK 40 | |||
| Postmenopausal breast | 4.08% | CRUK 40 | |||
Abbreviations: BHF, British Heart Foundation; CRUK, Cancer Research UK; NA, not applicable; RR, relative risk.
a
Relative risks are applied to the age and sex‐specific annual probabilities of mortality.