. 2021 Mar 9;7(3):269–280. doi: 10.1002/osp4.495

TABLE 8.

Observed event rates from the CPRD‐HES study versus those predicted by the Core Obesity Model (versions 8.0 and 6.1)

Incidence, crude event rates/1000 patient‐years	BMI	BMI	BMI	BMI	BMI
Incidence, crude event rates/1000 patient‐years	18.5–24.9 kg/m²	25–29.9 kg/m²	30–34.9 kg/m²	35–39.9 kg/m²	40–45 kg/m²
Cardiovascular events, total
CPRD‐HES study, observed event rates	7.8	7.6	7.9	8.2	8.5
Core Obesity Model (version 8.0), predicted
Base case	8.0	8.3	8.7	9.2	9.4
Scenario analysis	8.3	8.6	9.1	9.7	9.9
Core Obesity Model (version 6.1), base case	6.0	6.2	6.6	7.0	7.1
Unstable angina or myocardial infarction
CPRD‐HES study, observed event rates	3.4	3.5	3.8	3.9	4.0
Core Obesity Model (version 8.0), predicted
Base case	6.0	6.3	6.6	6.9	7.1
Scenario analysis	6.2	6.5	6.9	7.3	7.5
Core Obesity Model (version 6.1), base case	4.5	4.7	4.9	5.2	5.3
Stroke or transient ischemic attack
CPRD‐HES study, observed	4.4	4.1	4.1	4.3	4.5
Core Obesity Model (version 8.0), predicted
Base case	2.0	2.1	2.2	2.3	2.3
Scenario analysis	2.0	2.1	2.3	2.4	2.5
Core Obesity Model (version 6.1), base case	1.5	1.6	1.7	1.8	1.8
Type 2 diabetes
CPRD‐HES study, observed	2.1	4.8	9.9	16.4	22.7
Core Obesity Model (version 8.0), predicted
Base case	1.0	2.2	4.2	6.6	7.6
Scenario analysis	2.7	4.8	8.0	11.6	13.1
Core Obesity Model (version 6.1), base case	1.1	2.3	4.2	6.5	7.5
All‐cause mortality
CPRD‐HES study, observed	11.6	8.9	9.4	11.0	14.0
Core Obesity Model (version 8.0), predicted
Base case	4.8	4.9	5.0	5.1	5.2
Scenario analysis	4.9	5.0	5.1	5.3	5.3
Core Obesity Model (version 6.1), base case	3.8	3.8	3.9	4.0	4.0

Abbreviations: BMI, body mass index; CPRD‐HES, Clinical Practice Research Datalink‐Hospital Episode Statistics.