Table 2. Comparison of modeling and data with results from Brauner et al. [11].

(A) Estimated effects by model and data from Brauner et al. (posterior mean in%, 95% prediction interval (PrI) and rank) and by our model and data from Brauner et al. (posterior mean in%, 95% credible interval and rank). Note that, in these analyses, we report cumulative effects for bans of small gatherings and businesses closed as in Brauner et al. (B) Estimated effects on our data by the model from Brauner et al. (posterior mean in%, 95% prediction interval (PrI) and rank) and by our model (posterior mean in%, 95% credible interval, and rank). (C) Estimated effects by our model on our data (posterior mean in%, 95% credible interval, and rank) and by our model and data from Brauner et al. (posterior mean in%, 95% credible interval, and rank). Similar NPIs were matched but their definitions are not exactly the same. Note that in applying our model to the data by Brauner at al., we report the cumulative effect of “Gatherings <1000” and “Gatherings <100” when referring to our ban of small gatherings.

(A) Data by Brauner et al. but different modeling.
	Model and data by Brauner et al		Our model and data by Brauner et al
	Mean (PrI)	Rank	Mean (CrI)	Rank
Gatherings <1000	23 (0—40)	5	17 (5—28)	5
Gatherings <100	34 (12—42)	3	24 (11—36)	2
Gatherings <10	42 (17—60)	1	32 (17—47)	1
Schools and universities closed	38 (16—54)	2	23 (12—34)	3
Some businesses closed	18 (− 8—40)	6	5 (− 5—17)	7
Most businesses closed	27 (− 3—49)	4	18 (5—30)	4
Stay-at-home order	13 (− 5—31)	7	12 (5—18)	6
(B) Our data but different modeling.
	Model by Brauner et al and our data		Our model and our data
	Mean (PrI)	Rank	Mean (CrI)	Rank
Ban of large gatherings	48 (26—63)	1	37 (21—50)	1
Venue closure	30 (0—57)	2	18 (4—40)	2
School closure	7 (13—31)	4	17 (2—36)	3
Border closure	6 (−12—26)	5	10 (2—21)	4
Ban of small gatherings	15 (− 6—38)	3	9 (− 4—23)	5
Stay-at-home order	5 (−13—24)	7	4 (6—17)	6
Work-from-home order	6 (−12—27)	6	1 (8—12)	7