Table 3. Modeled interventions against COVID-19 and their effectiveness.
| Intervention | General Ward Bed Demand at Peak %* | General Ward Bed Demand Peak Day** | ICU Bed Demand Peak%* | ICU Bed Peak Demand Day** | Deaths %* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median IQR |
Median IQR |
Median IQR |
Median IQR |
Median IQR |
|
| Base Scenario (BC) | 100.0 85.7, 112.5 |
107.5 97.0, 119.0 |
100.0 86.7, 112.0 |
113.0 103.0, 124.3 |
100.0 96.6, 103.7 |
| Lockdown 1 Month | |||||
| Month 1 (LD1) | 102.8 89.0, 115.3 |
143.5 131.0, 156.0 |
102.8 90.0, 114.4 |
149.5 136.8, 162.0 |
101.6 97.0, 104.7 |
| Lockdown 2 Months Months 1–2 (LD2) |
102.4 86.3, 115.6 |
182.0 166.0, 202.3 |
102.3 87.1, 114.9 |
187.5 172.0, 208.3 |
99.5 95.1, 104.5 |
| Physical distancing Months 2–12 (PD1) |
35.8 22.7, 45.6 |
245.0 215.8, 309.5 |
36.9 23.7, 47.1 |
251.0 221.0, 314.5 |
66.7 47.9, 77.3 |
| Physical distancing Months 2–6 (PD2) |
88.1 79.3, 92.1 |
239.0 218.8, 255.0 |
88.2 80.5, 92.9 |
245.0 224.0, 261.0 |
97.3 95.8, 100.9 |
| Active Case Finding 5% Months 2–12 (CF1) |
47.6 31.5, 61.3 |
139.0 117.0, 159.0 |
48.8 32.6, 62.5 |
144.5 123.0, 164.3 |
72.9 62.6, 81.1 |
| Active Case Finding 5% Months 2–6 (CF2) |
53.7 38.1, 64.7 |
130.5 115.0, 154.3 |
54.8 39.4, 65.8 |
136.0 121.0, 160.0 |
77.0 72.6, 82.9 |
| Active Case Finding 5% Months 3–12 (CF3) |
63.9 47.3, 81.3 |
105.0 93.0, 122.0 |
64.9 48.7, 82.1 |
111.0 99.0, 127.3 |
78.3 72.8, 86.2 |
| Active Case Finding 10% Months 2–12 (CT1) |
17.1 7.9, 25.9 |
170.5 146.8, 220.3 |
17.8 8.3, 26.9 |
173.0 148.8, 225.5 |
43.6 28.7, 54.2 |
| Active Case Finding 10% Months 2–6 (CT2) |
40.7 28.2, 63.1 |
280.0 139.8, 290.0 |
41.8 29.3, 64.2 |
286.0 145.0, 295.0 |
86.1 77.4, 90.5 |
| LD1 + PD1 + CF1 | 0.3 0.0, 2.8 |
365.0 10.0, 366.0 |
0.3 0.0, 2.7 |
356.0 17.0, 366.0 |
0.6 0.1, 4.2 |
| LD1 + PD1 + CF2 | 5.0 0.3, 8.0 |
366.0 347.3, 366.0 |
6.8 0.2, 47.1 |
365.0 349.0, 366.0 |
3.9 0.2, 49.5 |
| LD1 + PD1 + CF3 | 1.0 0.1, 5.1 |
365.0 255.0, 366.0 |
1.0 0.1, 5.2 |
353.0 207.5, 366.0 |
2.3 0.4, 9.9 |
| LD1 + PD1 + CT1 | 0.0 0.0, 0.0 |
10.0 9.0, 11.0 |
0.0 0.0, 0.0 |
15.0 14.0, 16.0 |
0.0 0.0, 0.0 |
| LD1 + PD1 + CT2 | 0.1 0.0, 7.0 |
366.0 194.9, 366.0 |
0.1 0.0, 0.8 |
364.5 197.3, 366.0 |
0.1 0.1, 0.6 |
Note:
*Percentage as compared to Base Scenario.
**Days from the day simulation began (March 24). IQR: InterQuartile Range. Base scenario indicates an unmitigated epidemic of no interventions. In the Interventions column Month indicates the duration the specific intervention is in place. Detailed estimates are available in the S1 Appendix.