Figure 3.

Historical versus simulated data in exlcusive cigarette use, under the base‐case assumption (no catalyst and no diversion effects). The model was calibrated to National Youth Tobacco Survey (NYTS) data, and calibration was performed from 2000 to 2010 in order to project a base‐case counterfactual scenario in the absence of electronic cigarettes (ECs). Parameters determining the slope of the inflow (cigarette initiation rate) were optimized to achieve this best fit. ECs appeared in approximately 2010 (dotted vertical line)