Figure 8.

Trends in total nicotine use (exclusive cigarette use, exclusive electronic cigarette use and dual use combined) under scenarios using the calibrated diversion effect. The diversion effect was optimized to achieve the best fit with exclusive cigarette use (exponential decay constant of 55.4%/year or 65.4%/year, depending on whether or not an opposing catalyst effect is also active). Here, the diversion effect is shown against historical data using National Youth Tobacco Survey (NYTS). Electronic cigarettes (ECs) are estimated to have appeared in 2010 (vertical line). The band represents the range covered in the sensitivity analysis (i.e. a 50% change in either direction of the diversion effect parameter). ECs are estimated to have appeared in 2010 (dotted vertical line)