Table 3.
Multivariable Prediction Model and Score Points for Event‐Free Survival
| Predictors | Full Model | Final Model | Points | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HR (95% CI) | P Value | HR (95% CI) | P Value | ||
| Aged >30 y | 1.95 (0.79–4.77) | 0.15 | 2.75 (1.20–6.29) | 0.017 | 1 |
| Mustard procedure | 1.90 (0.71–5.07) | 0.20 | |||
| Aged >1 y at AtrSO | 4.82 (1.64–14.2) | 0.004 | 4.58 (1.64–12.8) | 0.004 | 1.5 |
| Symptoms (NYHA functional class ≥2) | 1.90 (0.88–4.11) | 0.11 | |||
| Prior ventricular arrhythmia | 4.65 (1.80–12.0) | 0.001 | 2.89 (1.22–6.81) | 0.015 | 1 |
| Pacemaker | 0.65 (0.24–1.73) | 0.38 | |||
| Prior supraventricular arrhythmia | 0.54 (0.24–1.20) | 0.13 | |||
| QRS duration >120 ms | 1.93 (0.76–4.89) | 0.17 | |||
| Heart rate, beats/min | 1.07 (0.81–1.41) | 0.64 | |||
| Moderate or greater RV dysfunction | 2.78 (1.16–6.64) | 0.021 | 2.79 (1.35–5.75) | 0.005 | 1 |
| Severe tricuspid regurgitation | 3.56 (1.25–10.2) | 0.018 | 3.55 (1.40–9.01) | 0.008 | 1.5 |
| Mild or greater LV dysfunction | 3.32 (1.16–9.46) | 0.025 | 4.46 (1.70–11.7) | 0.002 | 1.5 |
Of highly correlated characteristics (symptoms/prior heart failure hospitalization, prior ventricular arrhythmia/implantable cardioverter‐defibrillator, and pacemaker/ventricular pacing), the variable with highest C‐statistic in univariable analysis was included in multivariable analysis. Variables selected in >60% of the bootstrap samples of >60% of the imputed data sets (Table S1) were included in the final prediction model. AtrSO indicates atrial switch operation; HR, hazard ratio; LV, left ventricular; NYHA, New York Heart Association; and RV, right ventricular.