Fig 4. Disruption scenario simulations for 5 years.

Rabies dynamics in Arequipa were simulated for five years under four different scenarios. The “No disruption” scenario depicts a counterfactual no-covid scenario where vaccination campaigns were conducted at pre-pandemic normal (58% coverage) and average surveillance remained normal (average survival time of rabid dogs = 2.5 days) throughout the simulated time period (March 2020-March 2025). The disruption scenarios simulate 1–3 years of COVID-19 disruptions with vaccination coverage reduced to 12.3% and average survival time of rabid dogs increased to (3.7 days) before returning to pre-pandemic normal.