Table 4.
Performance of the predictive model for predicting VFF and comparison with previous models
| Cutoff | Sensitivity | Specificity | AUC | PPV | NPV | LR + | LR- | Odd ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model 1 (with BMD) | |||||||||
| HHL > 1.5 cm + BMD FN < -1.7 | 5 | 83% | 52% | 0.67 | 42% | 88% | 1.73 | 0.33 | 5.23 |
| Age > 65 years + HHL > 1.5 cm | 7 | 79% | 57% | 0.68 | 43% | 87% | 1.82 | 0.38 | 4.84 |
| Age > 65 years + BMD FN < -1.7 | 6 | 51% | 81% | 0.66 | 52% | 80% | 2.65 | 0.61 | 4.36 |
| All parameters | 9 | 43% | 86% | 0.65 | 56% | 78% | 3.09 | 0.66 | 4.67 |
| FRAX MOF with BMD | 10 | 36% | 85% | 0.6 | 50% | 76% | 2.41 | 0.76 | 3.19 |
| FRAX HF with BMD | 3 | 51% | 73% | 0.62 | 44% | 79% | 1.90 | 0.67 | 2.83 |
| Model 2 (without BMD) | |||||||||
| HHL > 1.5 cm | 3 | 93% | 32% | 0.63 | 36% | 92% | 1.38 | 0.2 | 6.68 |
| Age > 65 years | 4 | 83% | 52% | 0.66 | 42% | 88% | 1.73 | 0.33 | 5.23 |
| All parameters | 7 | 51% | 81% | 0.66 | 52% | 80% | 2.65 | 0.61 | 4.36 |
| FRAX MOF without BMD | 10.00 | 12% | 95% | 0.53 | 48% | 72% | 2.23 | 0.93 | 2.4 |
| FRAX HF without BMD | 3.00 | 30% | 85% | 0.57 | 44% | 75% | 1.94 | 0.83 | 2.33 |
| OSTA | -1.00 | 76% | 42% | 0.59 | 35% | 81% | 1.29 | 0.58 | 2.21 |
| -4.00 | 30% | 82% | 0.56 | 41% | 74% | 1.68 | 0.85 | 1.98 | |
| KKOS | -1.00 | 72% | 46% | 0.58 | 35% | 80% | 1.31 | 0.63 | 2.09 |
| ISCD 2019 model with BMD | none | 60% | 68% | 0.64 | 44% | 81% | 1.89 | 0.58 | 3.24 |
Cutoff value was calculated from sum of individual risk scores in Table 3 and according to original values reported for other models
AUC area under the curve, PPV positive predictive value, NPV negative predictive value, LR + positive likelihood ratio, LR- negative likelihood ratio