Figure - PMC

Skip to main content

An official website of the United States government

Here's how you know

Here's how you know

Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.

Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.

View full-text article in PMC

. 2021 Apr 21;104(6):2176–2184. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.20-1496

Search in PMC
Search in PubMed
View in NLM Catalog
Add to search

© The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC-BY) License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

PMC Copyright notice

Figure 3. — Top: Observed and predicted daily worldwide daily reported case-fatality rate (rCFR) using a simple exponential smoothing (SES) model. Middle: Observed and predicted daily worldwide daily cumulative rCFR using an auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Bottom: Observed and predicted daily worldwide daily cumulative rCFR using an automatic forecasting time-series model (Prophet). Black dots = observed data; the blue line = predictive CFR; the shaded area = 95% confidence interval of predicted CFR. This figure appears in color at www.ajtmh.org.