TABLE 3.

Concert 1 models and their predictive performance.

Model fit	Elpd difference	SE difference
Concert 1
Simple Models
Model 2: Preference played	0	0
Model 4: Shared agency	–1.7	4.3
Model 3: Self-agency	–1.7	4.3
Model 5: All	–3.0	3.1
Model 1: Vote	–3.0	3.5
Complex Models
Model 2: Preference played	0	0
Model 3: Self-agency	–5.0	3.4
Model 1: Vote	–5.3	3.6
Model 4: Shared agency	–5.5	3.2
Model 5: All	–9.0	3.2
Concert 2
Simple Models
Model 2: Presence	0	0
Model 1: Group	–4.1	3.5
Model 3: Group + presence	–4.3	3.0
Complex Models
Model 1: Group	0	0
Model 2: Presence	–0.9	4.8
Model 3: Group + presence	–7.3	5.2
Concert 3
Simple Models
Model 2: Group + presence	0	0
Model 1: group	–14.7	3.7
Complex Models
Model 2: Group + presence	0	0
Model 1: Group	–6.8	3.9

A meaningful difference is 2x the standard error.