Table 2.

The parameters of the natural history model of colorectal cancer (CRC).

Parameter	Description	Base value	Calibrate?	Source	Prior range
l	Scale parameter of Weibull hazard	2.86e-06	Yes	Wu et al., 2006	[2 × 10−6, 2 × 10−5]
g	Shape parameter of Weibull hazard	2.78	Yes	Wu et al., 2006	[2.00, 4.00]
λ2	Small adenoma to large adenoma	0.0346	Yes	Wu et al., 2006	[0.01, 0.10]
λ3	Large adenoma to preclinical early CRC	0.0215	Yes	Wu et al., 2006	[0.01, 0.04]
λ4	Preclinical early to preclinical late CRC	0.3697	Yes	Wu et al., 2006	[0.20, 0.50]
λ5	Preclinical early to clinical early CRC	0.2382	Yes	Wu et al., 2006	[0.20, 0.30]
λ6	Preclinical late to clinical late CRC	0.4852	Yes	Wu et al., 2006	[0.30, 0.70]
λ7	CRC mortality in early stage	0.0302	No	Wu et al., 2006	-
λ8	CRC mortality in late stage	0.2099	No	Wu et al., 2006	-
padeno	Prevalence of adenoma at age 50	0.27	Yes	Rutter et al., 2007	[0.25, 0.35]
psmall	Proportion of small adenomas at age 50	0.71	Yes	Wu et al., 2006	[0.38, 0.95]

The base values are used to generate the calibration targets and the ranges of the uniform distribution used as priors for the Bayesian calibration.