Table 4.
Comparison of reported and predicted COVID-19 cases for the countries.
| Date | Germany |
Turkey |
USA |
||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NARNN | GM (1,1) | Rolling- GM (1,1) | Rolling-PSO- GM (1,1) | Actual | NARNN | GM (1,1) | Rolling- GM (1,1) | Rolling-PSO- GM (1,1) | Actual | NARNN | GM (1,1) | Rolling- GM (1,1) | Rolling-PSO- GM (1,1) | |
| In-sample | |||||||||||||||
| 26-Apr | 157,770 | 110,130 | 971,078 | ||||||||||||
| 27-Apr | 158,758 | 112,261 | 994,265 | ||||||||||||
| 28-Apr | 159,912 | 114,653 | 1,018,926 | ||||||||||||
| 29-Apr | 161,539 | 117,589 | 1,046,737 | ||||||||||||
| 30-Apr | 163,009 | 162,819 | 163,748 | 162,871 | 162,948 | 120,204 | 120,534 | 122,709 | 120,265 | 120,347 | 1,076,224 | 1,099,297 | 1,111,092 | 1,073,548 | 1,074,002 |
| 01-May | 164,077 | 163,988 | 164,418 | 164,607 | 164,559 | 122,392 | 122,753 | 123,987 | 123,135 | 123,079 | 1,110,464 | 1,121,550 | 1,129,477 | 1,105,854 | 1,106,259 |
| 02-May | 164,967 | 164,743 | 165,091 | 165,428 | 165,361 | 124,375 | 124,762 | 125,279 | 124,938 | 124,867 | 1,138,228 | 1,148,564 | 1,148,166 | 1,143,081 | 1,143,768 |
| 03-May | 165,664 | 165,485 | 165,767 | 165,985 | 165,951 | 126,045 | 126,496 | 126,584 | 126,550 | 126,520 | 1,162,685 | 1,171,283 | 1,167,164 | 1,171,625 | 1,170,557 |
| 04-May | 166,152 | 166,169 | 166,445 | 166,495 | 166,525 | 127,659 | 128,151 | 127,902 | 127,965 | 127,912 | 1,186,067 | 1,193,261 | 1,186,477 | 1,190,273 | 1,189,709 |
| 05-May | 167,007 | 166,914 | 167,126 | 166,782 | 166,857 | 129,491 | 130,035 | 129,235 | 129,344 | 129,279 | 1,210,577 | 1,216,569 | 1,206,109 | 1,210,939 | 1,210,653 |
| 06-May | 168,162 | 168,150 | 167,810 | 167,622 | 167,683 | 131,744 | 132,085 | 130,581 | 131,216 | 131,239 | 1,235,666 | 1,240,133 | 1,226,066 | 1,235,110 | 1,235,451 |
| 07-May | 169,430 | 169,512 | 168,496 | 169,127 | 169,135 | 133,721 | 134,285 | 131,941 | 133,770 | 133,835 | 1,263,402 | 1,263,741 | 1,246,353 | 1,261,179 | 1,261,608 |
| 08-May | 170,588 | 170,643 | 169,186 | 170,637 | 170,622 | 135,569 | 136,112 | 133,316 | 135,934 | 135,888 | 1,290,151 | 1,290,387 | 1,266,976 | 1,290,288 | 1,290,851 |
| 09-May | 171,324 | 171,341 | 169,878 | 171,833 | 171,792 | 137,115 | 137,729 | 134,704 | 137,546 | 137,503 | 1,315,099 | 1,315,525 | 1,287,941 | 1,318,484 | 1,318,084 |
| 10-May | 171,879 | 170,715 | 170,573 | 172,349 | 172,279 | 138,657 | 139,104 | 136,108 | 138,895 | 138,844 | 1,333,970 | 1,338,717 | 1,309,252 | 1,342,058 | 1,341,652 |
| 11-May | 172,576 | 170,637 | 171,271 | 172,558 | 172,564 | 139,771 | 140,183 | 137,525 | 140,229 | 140,101 | 1,353,397 | 1,355,104 | 1,330,915 | 1,357,438 | 1,356,434 |
| 12-May | 173,171 | 173,191 | 171,971 | 173,182 | 173,210 | 141,475 | 141,887 | 138,958 | 141,189 | 141,118 | 1,376,122 | 1,375,093 | 1,352,938 | 1,372,892 | 1,373,339 |
| 13-May | 174,098 | 174,085 | 172,675 | 173,838 | 173,870 | 143,114 | 142,757 | 140,406 | 142,810 | 142,905 | 1,397,085 | 1,400,335 | 1,375,324 | 1,397,186 | 1,397,695 |
| 14-May | 174,478 | 174,480 | 173,382 | 174,809 | 174,850 | 144,749 | 144,552 | 141,868 | 144,827 | 144,754 | 1,424,243 | 1,419,663 | 1,398,081 | 1,419,764 | 1,420,215 |
| 15-May | 175,233 | 175,264 | 174,091 | 175,226 | 175,135 | 146,457 | 146,889 | 143,346 | 146,416 | 146,433 | 1,449,498 | 1,448,977 | 1,421,215 | 1,447,964 | 1,448,931 |
| 16-May | 175,752 | 175,776 | 174,803 | 175,741 | 175,803 | 148,067 | 148,427 | 144,839 | 148,147 | 148,001 | 1,473,514 | 1,472,656 | 1,444,731 | 1,476,775 | 1,476,611 |
| 17-May | 176,369 | 175,943 | 175,519 | 176,432 | 176,406 | 149,435 | 149,685 | 146,348 | 149,772 | 149,698 | 1,491,829 | 1,493,201 | 1,468,637 | 1,499,013 | 1,498,270 |
| 18-May | 176,551 | 176,552 | 176,237 | 176,924 | 176,732 | 150,593 | 150,741 | 147,873 | 150,987 | 150,927 | 1,513,816 | 1,508,073 | 1,492,938 | 1,514,400 | 1,513,456 |
| 19-May | 177,778 | 175,809 | 176,958 | 177,024 | 176,952 | 151,615 | 151,572 | 149,413 | 151,907 | 151,860 | 1,534,871 | 1,532,351 | 1,517,641 | 1,533,803 | 1,534,378 |
| 20-May | 178,473 | 176,656 | 177,682 | 178,314 | 178,487 | 152,587 | 152,462 | 150,969 | 152,740 | 152,664 | 1,557,933 | 1,554,757 | 1,542,753 | 1,557,028 | 1,557,203 |
| 21-May | 179,021 | 179,019 | 178,409 | 179,530 | 179,442 | 153,548 | 153,435 | 152,542 | 153,603 | 153,565 | 1,583,798 | 1,578,484 | 1,568,280 | 1,580,169 | 1,581,012 |
| 22-May | 179,710 | 180,489 | 179,139 | 179,670 | 179,701 | 154,500 | 154,444 | 154,131 | 154,526 | 154,481 | 1,607,109 | 1,606,756 | 1,594,230 | 1,608,418 | 1,608,141 |
| 23-May | 179,986 | 179,994 | 179,872 | 180,309 | 180,256 | 155,686 | 155,437 | 155,737 | 155,467 | 155,550 | 1,628,212 | 1,628,082 | 1,620,609 | 1,632,715 | 1,632,168 |
| 24-May | 180,328 | 180,348 | 180,608 | 180,539 | 180,470 | 156,827 | 156,407 | 157,359 | 156,728 | 156,796 | 1,648,158 | 1,646,710 | 1,647,425 | 1,651,264 | 1,650,785 |
| 25-May | 180,600 | 180,597 | 181,347 | 180,627 | 180,594 | 157,814 | 157,503 | 158,998 | 158,012 | 157,874 | 1,666,505 | 1,666,766 | 1,674,684 | 1,669,281 | 1,668,453 |
| 26-May | 181,200 | 180,716 | 182,089 | 180,919 | 181,039 | 158,762 | 158,331 | 160,655 | 158,915 | 158,876 | 1,685,956 | 1,685,503 | 1,702,394 | 1,686,265 | 1,686,034 |
| 27-May | 181,524 | 181,558 | 182,834 | 181,583 | 181,601 | 159,797 | 159,416 | 162,328 | 159,745 | 159,777 | 1,704,489 | 1,706,408 | 1,730,563 | 1,705,015 | 1,704,499 |
| 28-May | 182,196 | 182,195 | 183,582 | 182,034 | 182,052 | 160,979 | 160,550 | 164,019 | 160,784 | 160,897 | 1,727,357 | 1,726,176 | 1,759,198 | 1,723,970 | 1,725,182 |
| 29-May | 182,922 | 182,823 | 184,333 | 182,638 | 182,700 | 162,120 | 161,517 | 165,728 | 162,076 | 162,117 | 1,751,612 | 1,750,280 | 1,788,307 | 1,747,751 | 1,748,437 |
| 30-May | 183,189 | 183,264 | 185,087 | 183,616 | 183,367 | 163,103 | 162,359 | 167,454 | 163,302 | 163,172 | 1,775,428 | 1,774,423 | 1,817,898 | 1,775,458 | 1,775,591 |
| Out-of-sample | |||||||||||||||
| 31-May | 183,410 | 183,538 | 185,844 | 183,764 | 183,688 | 163,942 | 163,093 | 169,199 | 164,202 | 164,139 | 1,794,465 | 1,793,849 | 1,847,978 | 1,800,058 | 1,799,322 |
| 01-Jun | 183,594 | 183,421 | 186,605 | 184,135 | 183,959 | 164,769 | 164,006 | 170,961 | 165,234 | 165,096 | 1,811,393 | 1,806,855 | 1,878,556 | 1,824,673 | 1,823,222 |
| 02-Jun | 183,879 | 183,223 | 187,368 | 184,644 | 184,289 | 165,555 | 164,579 | 172,742 | 166,322 | 166,023 | 1,832,782 | 1,814,934 | 1,909,639 | 1,849,832 | 1,846,742 |
| 03-Jun | 184,121 | 183,057 | 188,135 | 185,063 | 184,500 | 166,422 | 167,017 | 174,542 | 167,384 | 167,062 | 1,852,788 | 1,820,198 | 1,941,237 | 1,875,169 | 1,869,405 |
| 04-Jun | 184,472 | 182,724 | 188,904 | 185,544 | 184,824 | 167,410 | 165,874 | 176,360 | 168,474 | 168,042 | 1,874,156 | 1,823,506 | 1,973,358 | 1,900,935 | 1,891,680 |