Table 3.
One-way sensitivity analyses.
| Incremental effectiveness | ||
|---|---|---|
| LE gained | Loss-of-LE saved | |
| life-years (95% prediction interval) | life-years (95% prediction interval) | |
| Smoking | ||
| Study cohort | 410.3 (328.4 to 503.3) | 297.1 (187.8 to 396.4) |
| Smokers | 354.5 (237.9 to 474.9) | 244.4 (115.8 to 369.7)* |
| Proportion of excess cancers over-diagnosed | ||
| 100% | 410.3 (328.4 to 503.3) | 297.1 (187.8 to 396.4) |
| 50% | 635.2 (545.3 to 728.6) | 515.0 (407.4 to 622.4) |
| 3% | 863.7 (768.8 to 962.4) | 738.8 (625.2 to 852.2) |
| 0% | 879.2 (783.9 to 978.2) | 753.9 (639.8 to 867.7) |
| Test sensitivity of LDCT | ||
| 93.1%26 | 410.3 (328.4 to 503.3) | 297.1 (187.8 to 396.4) |
| 80% | 299.8 (227.1 to 375.3) | 203.9 (116.9 to 290.7) |
| 60% | 132.2 (77.7 to 188.9) | 59.8 (-5.5 to 124.9) |
| Stage shift | ||
| NLST1 | 410.3 (328.4 to 503.3) | 297.1 (187.8 to 396.4) |
| NELSON2 | 536.3 (459.3 to 620.6) | 429.9 (331.3 to 523.7) |
LE life expectancy, LDCT low-dose computed tomography, NELSON Dutch-Belgian lung cancer screening trial, NLST National Lung Screening Trial.
*Smoking information of lung cancer patients was available from 2011, the follow-up period was too short to estimate the lifetime survival functions of age-, sex-, calendar year-, and comorbidities-matched referents accurately. Survival of lung cancer patients was directly compared with that of age-, sex-, calendar year-matched reference population simulated from the life tables for loss-of-LE.