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Projected epidemic curves showing daily clinical incident cases per 100 000 people for Scenario 2 at different lengths of shutdowns: 28 days (a); 42 days (b); 56 days (c) and 70 days (d). The black line represents the median clinical incident value across 50 model realizations. The shaded grey area represents the 95% credible interval. The red dash line represents the median of prevalent active clinical cases.
