Skip to main content
. 2021 May 12;8(5):210233. doi: 10.1098/rsos.210233

Table 1.

Summary of shutdown scenarios and the models (bolded) explored (18 models in total).

changes that could be applied from 8 September 2020 onward Scenario 1: speed of shutdowns Scenario 2: duration of shutdowns Scenario 3: minimum break between subsequent shutdowns Scenario 4: extensiveness of shutdowns

  • threshold to trigger shutdowns

  • A. 50 active casesa per 100 000

    B. 100 active casesa per 100 000

    C. 150 active casesa per 100 000

    D. 200 active casesa per 100 000

  • 100 active casesa per 100 000 (unchanged)

  • 100 active casesa per 100 000 (unchanged)

  • 100 active casesa per 100 000 (unchanged)

  • duration of shutdowns

  • 42 days (unchanged)

  • A. 28 days (4 weeks)

    B. 42 days (6 weeks)

    C. 56 days (8 weeks)

    D. 70 days (10 weeks)

  • 42 days (unchanged)

  • 42 days (unchanged)

  • duration between shutdowns (minimum break between shutdowns)

  • none, subsequent shutdowns occur as soon as trigger for shutting down is reached (unchanged)

  • none, subsequent shutdowns occur as soon as trigger for shutting down is reached (unchanged)

  • A. 28 days (4 weeks)

    B. 56 days (8 weeks)

    C. 84 days (12 weeks)

    D. 112 days (16 weeks)

  • none, subsequent shutdowns occur as soon as trigger for shutting down is reached (unchanged)

  • sectors that are closed during shutdowns

  • 100% schools, 50% workplaces and 50% mixed-age venues for each shutdown (unchanged)

  • 100% schools, 50% workplaces and 50% mixed-age venues for each shutdown (unchanged)

  • 100% schools, 50% workplaces and 50% mixed-age venues for each shutdown (unchanged)

  • A. Baseline—no further shutdowns

    B. All (50% workplaces, 100% schools and 50% mixed-age venues)

    C. 50% workplaces only

    D. 100% schools only

    E. 50% mixed-age venues only

    F. 50% mixed-age venues and 50% workplaces together

aActive cases in the model represented the total number of cases that were symptomatic or hospitalized on a given day. It did not include asymptomatic cases. On average, mild cases were active for 6.5 days (range of 5–12 days), hospitalized cases were active for 14.5 days (range of 7–21 days) and ICU-admitted cases were active for 23 days (range of 12.5–33.5 days). Cases were considered resolved when they are no longer symptomatic (mild cases), discharged from hospital or had died.