Table 2.
Summary of model outputs for Scenario 1: speed of shutdowns. Median values from 50 realizations are presented in the table with 2.5th percentile and 97.5th percentile values representing the 95% credible interval presented in brackets. The median values indicate the most likely outcome out of 50 realizations.
| Scenario 1: speed of shutdowns | A. 50 active cases per 100 000 | B. 100 active cases per 100 000 | C. 150 active cases per 100 000 | D. 200 active cases per 100 000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| total attack rate (%) | 4.25 (3.44–12.79) | 7.51 (6.22–8.58) | 10.39 (8.84–11.87) | 12.95 (10.62–14.38) |
| clinical attack rate (%) | 2.56 (2.11–7.72) | 4.55 (3.79–5.27) | 6.33 (5.43–7.32) | 7.88 (6.45–8.76) |
| asymptomatic attack rate (%) | 1.66 (1.33–5.07) | 2.96 (2.43–3.33) | 4.03 (3.42–4.61) | 5.07 (4.14–5.54) |
| case fatality rate (%) | 1.47 (1.07–2.24) | 1.43 (1.09–1.71) | 1.39 (1.15–1.66) | 1.49 (1.12–1.79) |
| infection fatality rate (%) | 0.90 (0.65–1.38) | 0.88 (0.66–1.04) | 0.84 (0.70–1.01) | 0.90 (0.68–1.08) |
| number of shutdown days (from 8 Sep 2020 to 7 Jan 2022) | 255 (212–297) | 216 (187–257) | 213 (171–253) | 194 (168–214) |
| total cases (clinical and asymptomatic) per 100 000 | 4256 (3444–12 799) | 7517 (6227–8593) | 10 396 (8851–11 877) | 12 961 (10 635–14 391) |
| total clinical cases per 100 000 | 2565 (2110–7727) | 4554 (3795–5277) | 6338 (5432–7326) | 7887 (6458–8772) |
| total asymptomatic cases per 100 000 | 1662 (1334–5072) | 2965 (2433–3331) | 4037 (3419–4610) | 5073 (4443–5545) |
| total hospitalized cases (acute and ICU) per 100 000 | 266 (217–787) | 470 (388–540) | 645 (42–762) | 782 (631–904) |
| total acute hospitalized cases per 100 000 | 198 (165–577) | 350 (279–410) | 478 (94–563) | 582 (465–681) |
| total cases admitted into the ICU per 100 000 | 68 (48–209) | 119 (91–140) | 159 (29–197) | 197 (155–230) |
| total deaths per 100 000 | 36 (26–173) | 65 (47–82) | 88 (70–115) | 116 (82–146) |
| proportion of infections acquired at school (%) | 5.78 (4.35–7.55) | 6.31 (5.25–7.52) | 6.76 (5.66–7.78) | 7.03 (6.22–8.18) |
| proportion of infections acquired at work (%) | 11.06 (9.77–12.22) | 11.34 (10.62–12.52) | 11.39 (10.55–12.48) | 11.46 (10.98–12.13) |
| proportion of infections acquired in mixed-age venues (%) | 21.90 (20.47–23.75) | 22.03 (20.52–23.15) | 22.09 (21.21–23.27) | 21.85 (20.95–22.93) |
| proportion of infections acquired in the household (%) | 61.20 (59.47–62.15) | 60.23 (59.59–60.95) | 59.79 (58.99–60.63) | 59.53 (58.70–59.89) |