Table 3.
Summary of model outputs for Scenario 2: duration of shutdowns. Median values from 50 realizations are presented in the table with 2.5th percentile and 97.5th percentile values representing the 95% credible interval presented in brackets. The median values indicate the most likely outcome out of 50 realizations.
| Scenario 2: duration of shutdowns | A. 28-day (4 weeks) shutdown | B. 42-day (6 weeks) shutdown | C. 56-day (8 weeks) shutdown | D. 70-day (10 weeks) shutdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| total attack rate (%) | 8.45 (7.29–9.98) | 7.57 (6.63–8.36) | 6.93 (5.62–7.92) | 6.33 (4.86–7.45) |
| clinical attack rate (%) | 5.17 (4.52–6.14) | 4.65 (4.08–5.06) | 4.22 (3.50–4.84) | 3.86 (2.97–4.61) |
| asymptomatic attack rate (%) | 3.26 (2.78–3.83) | 2.94 (2.54–3.30) | 2.66 (2.12–3.09) | 2.47 (1.88–2.86) |
| case fatality rate (%) | 1.40 (1.11–1.69) | 1.39 (1.14–1.81) | 1.39 (1.15–1.78) | 1.43 (1.01–1.73) |
| infection fatality rate (%) | 0.85 (0.66–1.04) | 0.85 (0.70–1.10) | 0.85 (0.71–1.09) | 0.87 (0.62–1.06) |
| number of shutdown days (from 8 Sep 2020 to 7 Jan 2022) | 211 (171–256) | 218 (185–256) | 229 (224–283) | 256 (211–283) |
| total cases (clinical and asymptomatic) per 100 000 | 8461 (7298–9991) | 7580 (6633–8368) | 6933 (5623–7924) | 6334 (4864–7457) |
| total clinical cases per 100 000 | 5180 (4528–6155) | 4652 (4081–5063) | 4227 (3499–4844) | 3867 (2976–4617) |
| total asymptomatic cases per 100 000 | 3271 (2791–3836) | 2943 (2540–3305) | 2662 (2124–3090) | 2474 (1883–2863) |
| total hospitalized cases (acute and ICU) per 100 000 | 520 (462–648) | 466 (391–538) | 431 (355–492) | 391 (297–468) |
| total acute hospitalized cases per 100 000 | 383 (343–475) | 341 (288–412) | 317 (259–367) | 291 (219–348) |
| total cases admitted into the ICU per 100 000 | 135 (115–168) | 117 (95–141) | 108 (80–133) | 95 (69–123) |
| total deaths per 100 000 | 74 (57–90) | 65 (50–85) | 59 (40–74) | 53 (38–70) |
| proportion of infections acquired at school (%) | 6.38 (5.31–7.75) | 6.32 (5.29–7.15) | 6.26 (5.17–7.31) | 6.09 (4.70–7.56) |
| proportion of infections acquired at work (%) | 11.49 (10.42–12.30) | 11.47 (10.37–12.85) | 11.24 (10.05–12.39) | 11.28 (10.31–12.56) |
| proportion of infections acquired in mixed-age venues (%) | 22.17 (21.03–23.49) | 21.95 (20.53–23.02) | 22.13 (20.97–23.33) | 21.97 (20.43–23.45) |
| proportion of infections acquired in the household (%) | 60.12 (59.24–60.73) | 60.24 (59.26–61.10) | 60.48 (59.63–61.13) | 60.58 (59.80–61.44) |