Table 5.
Summary of model outputs for Scenario 4: extensiveness of shutdowns (part 1). Median values from 50 realizations are presented in the table with 2.5th percentile and 97.5th percentile values representing the 95% credible interval presented in brackets. The median values indicate the most likely outcome out of 50 realizations.
| Scenario 4: extensiveness of shutdowns | A. baseline (no further shutdowns) | B. all shutdown (100% schools, 50% workplaces and 50% mixed-age venues) | C. 50% workplaces only |
|---|---|---|---|
| total attack rate (%) | 41.11 (40.12–42.22) | 6.50 (5.33–7.59) | 33.59 (32.38–34.67) |
| clinical attack rate (%) | 25.13 (24.38–25.74) | 3.97 (3.25–4.60) | 20.36 (19.29–21.12) |
| asymptomatic attack rate (%) | 16.00 (15.64–16.47) | 2.55 (2.12–2.99) | 13.20 (12.19–13.69) |
| case fatality rate (%) | 2.96 (2.74–3.12) | 1.40 (1.15–1.73) | 2.84 (2.2–3.04) |
| infection fatality rate (%) | 1.80 (1.67–1.90) | 0.84 (0.70–1.04) | 1.72 (1.1–1.84) |
| number of shutdown days (from 8 Sep 2020 to 7 Jan 2022) | 0 (0–0) | 195 (168–213) | 255 (213–255) |
| total cases (clinical and asymptomatic) per 100 000 | 41 145 (40 157–42 256) | 6503 (5336–7595) | 33 625 (32 309–34 703) |
| total clinical cases per 100 000 | 25 151 (24 405–25 766) | 3973 (3249–4607) | 20 384 (19 505–21 137) |
| total asymptomatic cases per 100 000 | 16 015 (15 659–16 490) | 2556 (2124–2988) | 13 217 (12 804–13 707) |
| total hospitalized cases (acute and ICU) per 100 000 | 2618 (2483–2763) | 408 (324–464) | 2091 (1985–2242) |
| total acute hospitalized cases per 100 000 | 1957 (1859–2073) | 292 (239–351) | 1568 (1477–1671) |
| total cases admitted into the ICU per 100 000 | 664 (615–716) | 101 (76–132) | 532 (479–574) |
| total deaths per 100 000 | 740 (670–790) | 54 (45–71) | 577 (542–623) |
| proportion of infections acquired at school (%) | 10.23 (9.92–10.68) | 7.13 (6.13–8.22) | 11.66 (11.10–11.98) |
| proportion of infections acquired at work (%) | 12.26 (11.83–12.66) | 10.98 (9.84–11.76) | 7.21 (6.75–7.78) |
| proportion of infections acquired in mixed-age venues (%) | 21.96 (21.50–22.23) | 21.45 (19.69–22.76) | 23.94 (23.57–24.48) |
| proportion of infections acquired in the household (%) | 55.56 (55.29–56.02) | 60.53 (59.63–61.40) | 57.19 (56.87–57.43) |