Table 6.

Summary of model outputs for Scenario 4: extensiveness of shutdowns (part 2). Median values from 50 realizations are presented in the table with 2.5th percentile and 97.5th percentile values representing the 95% credible interval presented in brackets. The median values indicate the most likely outcome out of 50 realizations.

Scenario 4: extensiveness of shutdowns	D. 100% schools only	E. 50% mixed-age venues only	F. 50% mixed-age venues and 50% workplaces
total attack rate (%)	21.47 (18.90–23.50)	10.75 (9.40–13.30)	9.10 (7.80–10.36)
clinical attack rate (%)	13.31 (11.68–14.59)	6.49 (5.65–8.01)	5.45 (4.71–6.24)
asymptomatic attack rate (%)	8.17 (7.22–8.97)	4.27 (3.72–5.29)	3.61 (3.05–4.12)
case fatality rate (%)	2.44 (2.16–2.73)	1.36 (1.07–1.65)	1.36 (1.08–1.72)
infection fatality rate (%)	1.51 (1.33–1.68)	0.81 (0.65–0.99)	0.82 (0.65–1.04)
number of shutdown days (from 8 Sep 2020 to 7 Jan 2022)	340 (297–383)	339 (288–376)	297 (255–339)
total cases (clinical and asymptomatic) per 100 000	21 492 (18 923–23 519)	10 762 (9409–13 309)	9109 (7810–10 371)
total clinical cases per 100 000	13 320 (11 693–14 602)	6501 (5656–8013)	5457 (4714–6248)
total asymptomatic cases per 100 000	8173 (7230–8983)	4277 (3719–5296)	3619 (3055–4123)
total hospitalized cases (acute and ICU) per 100 000	1412 (1240–1598)	634 (548–754)	539 (452–637)
total acute hospitalized cases per 100 000	1062 (949–1179)	475 (400–554)	396 (343–455)
total cases admitted into the ICU per 100 000	354 (301–423)	158 (134–199)	131 (106–166)
total deaths per 100 000	328 (260–383)	89 (67–119)	74 (57–95)
proportion of infections acquired at school (%)	1.41 (0.95–1.91)	11.39 (10.14–12.20)	12.38 (10.95–14.06)
proportion of infections acquired at work (%)	15.19 (14.61–15.97)	11.22 (10.41–12.29)	8.47 (7.49–9.63)
proportion of infections acquired in mixed-age venues (%)	25.90 (25.26–26.95)	17.23 (16.14–18.56)	18.52 (17.41–19.82)
proportion of infections acquired in the household (%)	57.43 (57.01–57.87)	60.13 (59.57–60.74)	60.60 (59.98–61.09)