TABLE 1.
HIV Epidemic Profile of the 2 Cities: Population Structure, Sexual Behaviors, HIV Prevalence, and Intervention Levels in Yaoundé (Cameroon) and Cotonou (Benin)
| Yaoundé | Cotonou | |
| Population structure | ||
| % FSW among all females | 1.5% (0.5–3.0)43,120,121 | 0.30%* (0.27–0.38)72,91,122–125 |
| % Clients among all males | 16.0% (7.9–19.7)66,76,92,93,126 | 21.3% (12.6–25.9)64,90,122–125 |
| % MSM among all males | 1.8% (1.0–2.2)43,121 | NA |
| Sexual behaviors | ||
| FSW: | ||
| No. of commercial sex acts (per year) | 493 (304–932)43,76,78,121,127 | 648 (194–1546)44,65,80,82,84,88,90 |
| No. of noncommercial sex acts (per year) | 368 (231–303)43 | 27 (15–44)44,65,80,82–84,88 |
| Clients: | ||
| No. of sex acts (per year) | 233 (168–380)73,128 | 121 (89–162)44,82,84,90 |
| MSM: | ||
| No. of sex acts with male partners (per year) | 172 (109–212)43 | NA |
| No. of sex acts with female partners (per year) | 140 (120–157)43 | NA |
| Lower-risk populations: | ||
| No. of sex acts (per year) | 100 (71–120)128 | 38 (29–47)81,86 |
| Fraction of sex acts which are with casual partners. | 2093 | 20%† |
| HIV prevalence | ||
| FSW | 13.9% (11.9–16.4)43 | 8.5% (7.1–11.2)81,84,85,129 |
| Clients | 3.5% (2.5–4.6)73 | 1.5% (0.9–2.2)65 |
| MSM | 31.1% (26.9–34.8)43,130,131 | NA |
| Lower-risk females | 4.9% (3.9–5.9)66 | 1.0% (0.8–1.5)86 |
| Lower-risk males | 1.8% (1.3–2.4)66 | 0.6% (0.3–0.9)86 |
| % Condom use at last sex | ||
| FSW during paid sex | 81.2% (73.5–94.0)43 | 91.4% (86.0–98.2)44,81 |
| FSW during unpaid sex | 53.7% (47.5–65.0)43 | 39.9% (21.7–59.9)44,81,83 |
| MSM | 65.7% (57.7–77.5)43 | NA |
| Lower-risk populations | 29.1% (20.0–39.5)66,95 | 20.7% (16.2–25.5)81 |
| ART and viral suppression coverage in PLHIV | ||
| FSW: % on ART | 87.3% (81.3–91.9) | 72.0% (63.1–80.6) |
| % Virally suppressed | 69.9% (63.8–74.3)43 | 57.1% (49.7–66.2)68,69,99 |
| Clients: % on ART | 46.7% (40.5–52.5) | 58.8% (42.0–73.4) |
| % Virally suppressed | 37.4% (32.1–42.5)73 | 35.8% (20.2–55.8)68,69,99,101 |
| MSM: % on ART | 49.2% (43.4–54.8) | NA |
| % Virally suppressed | 39.6% (34.4–44.9)43 | |
| Lower-risk females: % on ART | 54.5% (50.4–59.9) | 74.9% (64.7–83.2) |
| % Virally suppressed | 43.8% (40.1–48.3)67,132 | 46.8% (31.4–65.4)68,69,99,101 |
| Lower-risk males: % on ART | 48.6% (42.7–53.4) | 68.3 (50.4–80.6) |
| % Virally suppressed | 39.2% (34.2–43.0)67,132 | 42.0% (23.3–63.0)68,69,99,101 |
Median and 95% UI (2.5th and 97.5th percentiles) of posterior distributions in January 2020 are shown.
The Cotonou model also represented women receiving less than half of their income from commercial sex [“part-time FSW,” 0.27% (0.23–0.33) of all women]. The combined posterior size of both groups was 0.70% (0.56–0.87).
FSW were defined as women reporting most of their income as originating from commercial sex.
Casual partnerships were not explicitly modeled in Cotonou, as no data were available. A fraction of 20% of noncommercial sex acts of all risk groups were assumed to be with casual partners, to match estimates from Yaoundé DHS.
NA, not available as not modeled in Cotonou.