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. 2021 Jun 9;7(6):e27888. doi: 10.2196/27888

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©Lauren A Castro, Courtney D Shelley, Dave Osthus, Isaac Michaud, Jason Mitchell, Carrie A Manore, Sara Y Del Valle. Originally published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (https://publichealth.jmir.org), 09.06.2021.

This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work, first published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance, is properly cited. The complete bibliographic information, a link to the original publication on https://publichealth.jmir.org, as well as this copyright and license information must be included.

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Back-fitting procedure for the November 18, 2020, forecast for New Mexico. (A, C, E) For each forecast from over the week (the panels), a regression was fit (blue line) from the 50th percentile of the baseline forecasts (yellow line) to the observed data (black dots). A time-weighted average of the 2 regression coefficients from each panel was calculated separately for inpatient beds (A), ICU beds (C), and ventilators (E). (B, D, F) For the November 18 forecast, the Baseline forecast was multiplied by the time-weighted average of the regression coefficients to produce the Scaled forecast for the next four weeks. ICU: intensive care unit.