. 2021 Jun 9;7(6):e27888. doi: 10.2196/27888

Table 2.

The WAPEs and MAEs of the predicted forecasted median for COVID-19 health care use numbers reported for September 1 to January 5, 2020, in New Mexico.

Region^a and type			Forecast horizon^b
			1 week ahead					2 weeks ahead				3 weeks ahead			4 weeks ahead
			WAPE^c		MAE^d (SD)		WAPE		MAE (SD)		WAPE		MAE (SD)	WAPE		MAE (SD)
State
	Beds including ICUs^e	0.170		81.8 (91.9)		0.244				130 (141)	0.307		179 (206)	0.334		210 (249)
	ICUs	0.163		23.6 (22.4)		0.244				38.8 (39.4)	0.338		58.3 (64.1)	0.380		69.6 (81.0)
	Ventilators	0.188		13.5 (13.6)		0.261				21.2 (21.9)	0.324		29.2 (31.4)	0.349		34.2 (40.3)
Central
	Beds including ICUs	0.175		27.3 (33.9)		0.267				46.9 (60.9)	0.381		74.0 (97.9)	0.486		103 (113)
	ICUs	0.177		12.1 (13.7)		0.257				19.5 (23.4)	0.385		31.8 (39.7)	0.485		42.8 (50.6)
	Ventilators	0.204		9.43 (10.7)		0.281				14.7 (17.3)	0.358		20.9 (26.2)	0.406		25.9 (32.6)
Northwest
	Beds including ICUs	0.283		12.8 (19.5)		0.335				17.9 (27.6)	0.425		26.5 (39.7)	0.480		34.0 (44.2)
	ICUs	0.261		3.62 (4.09)		0.368				5.81 (7.07)	0.482		8.82 (11.3)	0.516		10.6 (14.2)
	Ventilators	0.557		2.06 (2.17)		0.673				2.76 (2.80)	0.757		3.53 (4.30)	0.729		3.73 (5.44)
Southeast
	Beds including ICUs	0.240		8.89 (7.59)		0.310				12.5 (12.9)	0.394		17.1 (16.4)	0.468		21.9 (19.5)
	ICUs	0.271		5.49 (4.55)		0.367				7.98 (7.64)	0.446		10.1 (10.2)	0.425		9.90 (10.1)
	Ventilators	0.346		2.17 (2.21)		0.468				3.34 (3.43)	0.547		4.21 (4.55)	0.605		5.03 (4.86)
Southwest
	Beds including ICUs	0.251		15.1 (14.4)		0.413				26.9 (30.0)	0.595		41.0 (44.2)	0.618		45.0 (43.0)
	ICUs	0.249		10.1 (9.47)		0.410				18.2 (21.1)	0.562		26.6 (33.5)	0.601		30.0 (34.4)
	Ventilators	0.240		5.32 (5.04)		0.366				9.06 (9.40)	0.412		11.4 (10.6)	0.428		12.9 (9.95)
Northeast
	Beds including ICUs	0.306		10.4 (13.3)		0.417				15.7 (20.1)	0.584		24.6 (30.4)	0.672		30.8 (34.8)
	ICUs	0.311		3.25 (3.64)		0.434				5.27 (6.16)	0.570		7.63 (9.51)	0.650		9.46 (10.3)
	Ventilators	0.408		2.21 (2.34)		0.514				3.33 (3.15)	0.582		4.20 (3.83)	0.609		4.69 (4.11)

^aRegions are listed in increasing order of overall WAPE across both the forecast horizon and health care categories.

^bFor each forecast horizon, we considered all daily forecasts within that week.

^cWAPE: weighted absolute percentage error.

^dMAE: mean absolute error.

^eICUs: intensive care units.