Table 3.

Observed prediction interval coverage for COVID-19 health care use needs in New Mexico reported from September 1 to December 9, 2020.

Model and type			Measure (% coverage)		Observed prediction interval coverage
				Forecast horizon
				1 week ahead		2 weeks ahead	3 weeks ahead	4 weeks ahead
State
	Beds including ICUsb	50		0.22		0.34	0.50 a	0.50
		90		0.47		0.80	0.87	0.88
	ICU	50		0.21		0.31	0.45	0.52
		90		0.42		0.76	0.88	0.89
	Ventilators	50		0.13		0.15	0.32	0.39
		90		0.35		0.55	0.77	0.82
Regionalc
	Beds including ICU	50		0.27		0.33	0.36	0.30
		90		0.54		0.69	0.70	0.60
	ICU	50		0.29		0.29	0.36	0.38
		90		0.57		0.65	0.70	0.71
	Ventilators	50		0.20		0.23	0.27	0.33
		90		0.49		0.51	0.62	0.67

^aItalicized quantities are within 5% of their nominal coverage.

^bICUs: intensive care units.

^cRegional results are averaged across the five regions.