Table 2. Comparison of weekly changes in log daily fatalities due to COVID-19 between 2,647 counties with stay-at-home orders and 386 counties without orders relative to the same date for each unique stay-at-home date.
One Week Change in Log Weekly Fatalities | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Counties With Stay-at-Home Order | Counties Without Stay-at-Home Order | |||||||
Date Stay-at-Home Order Went Into Effect | Number of Counties | On Day of Order | 21 Days After Order | On Day of Order | 21 Days After Order | 21-Day Difference in Change, With Order | 21-Day Difference in Change, Without Order | Difference in Difference, Counties With Orders and Without Orders |
3/17/20 | 6 | 1.10 | 0.12 | -0.69 | 0.94 | -0.98 | 1.63 | -2.62 |
3/19/20 | 52 | 1.20 | 0.76 | -0.69 | 0.43 | -0.45 | 1.12 | -1.57 |
3/21/20 | 104 | 2.56 | 0.82 | -0.69 | 0.71 | -1.74 | 1.40 | -3.14 |
3/22/20 | 23 | 1.85 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 0.40 | -1.21 | 0.40 | -1.61 |
3/23/20 | 209 | 1.81 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.34 | -1.48 | 0.34 | -1.82 |
3/24/20 | 258 | 3.62 | 0.61 | 1.61 | 0.16 | -3.01 | -1.45 | -1.56 |
3/25/20 | 308 | 2.01 | 0.43 | 1.61 | 0.33 | -1.59 | -1.28 | -0.31 |
3/26/20 | 77 | 1.61 | 0.10 | 1.79 | 0.47 | -1.51 | -1.32 | -0.19 |
3/27/20 | 136 | 1.10 | -0.14 | 2.48 | 0.16 | -1.24 | -2.32 | 1.08 |
3/28/20 | 174 | 2.25 | 0.28 | 2.71 | 0.29 | -1.98 | -2.41 | 0.44 |
3/29/20 | 38 | 1.50 | 0.12 | 2.08 | 0.26 | -1.39 | -1.82 | 0.43 |
3/30/20 | 324 | 0.80 | 0.34 | 2.40 | 0.31 | -0.46 | -2.09 | 1.63 |
3/31/20 | 31 | 1.28 | 0.01 | 1.61 | 0.49 | -1.27 | -1.12 | -0.14 |
4/1/20 | 126 | 1.72 | 0.05 | 1.89 | 0.32 | -1.67 | -1.57 | -0.10 |
4/2/20 | 274 | 1.66 | 0.44 | 1.92 | 0.16 | -1.22 | -1.76 | 0.54 |
4/3/20 | 290 | 1.12 | 0.06 | 1.07 | 0.34 | -1.06 | -0.73 | -0.33 |
4/4/20 | 66 | 1.86 | 0.27 | 0.96 | 0.18 | -1.59 | -0.77 | -0.81 |
4/6/20 | 104 | 0.77 | -0.13 | 0.92 | 0.23 | -0.90 | -0.69 | -0.21 |
4/7/20 | 44 | 0.65 | 0.40 | 0.94 | 0.02 | -0.26 | -0.92 | 0.67 |
Although mean rates of change decline for all counties, the rightmost column shows that 1,931 of the 2,647 counties with orders are in groups that decline faster than counties without orders.