Table 1.
Multivariable model results: initial phase of the pandemic
| mLMM (dependent variable: probit_wADGR) | mGLMM (dependent variable: wADGR) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regressors | Maximum likelihood estimation | Bayesian estimation | Restricted maximum likelihood estimation | Average marginal effects (AME) % |
| Coefficients (95% CI) | Mean parameters (95% CrI) | Coefficients (95% CI) | ||
| - Intercept | − 0.41 ( − 0.68, − 0.13) | − 0.35 ( − 0.64, − 0.05) | − 0.46 ( − 0.71, − 0.21) | |
| - Time | − 0.14 ( − 0.15, − 0.12) | − 0.14 ( − 0.19, − 0.08) | − 0.13 ( − 0.15, − 0.11) | − 0.72 |
| - Restrictions on gatherings: gatherings of more than 100 people not permitted | − 0.44 ( − 0.63, − 0.24) | − 0.48 ( − 0.68, − 0.28) | − 0.35 ( − 0.51, − 0.19) | − 2.58 |
| - Restrictions on gatherings: gatherings of between 11 and 100 people not permitted | − 0.66 ( − 0.85, − 0.47) | − 0.70 ( − 0.89, − 0.50) | − 0.39 ( − 0.54, − 0.34) | − 2.78 |
| - Restrictions on gatherings: gatherings of 10 people or less not permitted | − 0.60 ( − 0.78, − 0.41) | − 0.65 ( − 0.83, − 0.46) | − 0.39 ( − 0.42, − 0.27) | − 2.81 |
| - Workplace closing: require closing (or work from home) for some sectors or categories of workers | − 0.18 ( − 0.27, − 0.08) | − 0.17 ( − 0.27, − 0.07) | − 0.24 ( − 0.34, − 0.13) | − 1.51 |
| - Workplace closing: require closing (or work from home) of all-but-essential workplaces (e.g. grocery stores, doctors) | − 0.22 ( − 0.33, − 0.12) | − 0.23 ( − 0.34, − 0.12) | − 0.29 ( − 0.40, − 0.18) | − 1.78 |
| - School closing: require closing of only some levels or categories, e.g. just high school, or just public schools | − 0.10 ( − 0.22, 0.10) | − 0.13 ( − 0.26, 0.06) | − 0.16 ( − 0.30, − 0.02) | − 1.12 |
| - School closing: require closing of all levels | − 0.20 ( − 0.34, − 0.06) | − 0.23 ( − 0.38, − 0.09) | − 0.25 ( − 0.40, − 0.11) | − 1.65 |
| - Mask-wearing: recommended | − 0.04 ( − 0.15, 0.07) | − 0.04 ( − 0.15, 0.08) | − 0.08 ( − 0.18, 0.01) | − 0.45 |
| - Mask-wearing: required in specific public places country-wide or in specific geographical areas within the country | − 0.09 ( − 0.19, 0.00) | − 0.11 ( − 0.20, − 0.01) | − 0.08 ( − 0.15, − 0.005) | − 0.44 |
| - Mask-wearing: required country-wide in all public places or in all public places where social distancing is not possible | − 0.24 ( − 0.37, − 0.12) | − 0.28 ( − 0.21, − 0.14) | − 0.19 ( − 0.32, − 0.07) | − 0.96 |
| - Total number of tests performed per thousand population | − 0.005 ( − 0.008, − 0.002) | − 0.004 ( − 0.008, − 0.001) | − 0.004 ( − 0.007, − 0.001) | − 0.02 |
mLMM multivariable linear mixed model; mGLMM multivariable generalized linear mixed model; CI Confidence interval; CrI Credible interval