Table 2.

Instrumented two-way fixed effects regression models.

	Communicable	Non-Communicable	All-Cause
Incarceration rate (t −1)	2.9	26.0	26.0
	(2.1, 3.7)	(22.0, 30.0)	(22.0, 30.0)
Incarceration rate (t −5)	0.8	20.0	20.0
	(0.2, 1.4)	(16.0, 24.0)	(16.0, 24.0)
Incarceration rate (t −10)	−0.6	13.0	15
	(−1.1, 0.01)	(9.0, 17.0)	(11.0, 19.0)

Notes: The outcome variables are age-standardised mortality rates from communicable diseases in the second column, from non-communicable diseases in the third column, and from all causes in the fourth column. The incarceration variable, lagged by one, five, and ten years, is instrumented as described in the Data and methods section. The corresponding parameter estimates are interpreted as the excess number of deaths per 100,000 county population caused by a standard deviation increase in incarceration rates, after adjusting for violent crime, median household income, high school graduation rates, fraction African Americans, fraction Hispanics, and fraction other ethnic minority (not displayed). 95% confidence intervals derived from robust standard errors are shown in parentheses below each parameter estimate.