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. 2021 Jun 11;12:3589. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-23707-7

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© The Author(s) 2021

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 4 — Each dot represents a modeled country-month, with black dots indicating mean values and gray bars indicating 95% confidence intervals for each metric. The solid line has a slope of 1.8, showing the relationship between NPC and access presumed by population-based net procurement decisions. The blue curve shows a Loess fit through the estimated points. The expected linear relationship between NPC and access holds well at low coverage levels, but the true relationship tapers off at NPC values greater than 0.25 and access over 0.5. This plateauing of access despite high numbers of nets distributed per capita suggests inefficiencies or redundancies in net distribution at these coverage levels, such that those who should be receiving nets are still left without access.