Table 6.
Association of CVD Risk Factors and Echocardiographic Abnormality With Incidence of Clinical HF and CVD Events
| Predictors | Hazard Ratio (95% CI) for Incident Clinical HF | Hazard Ratio (95% CI) for Incident CVD | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | |
| Age, per unit | 1.02 (0.99–1.04) | 1.02 (0.99–1.04) | 1.02 (0.99–1.04) | 1.06 (1.04–1.08) | 1.05 (1.03–1.07) | 1.05 (1.03–1.07) |
| Male sex | 1.37 (1.08–1.82) | 1.31 (1.01–1.71) | 1.32 (1.02–1.72) | 1.61 (1.28–2.01) | 1.55 (1.24–1.94) | 1.55 (1.24–1.95) |
| Body mass index, per unit | 1.03 (1.01–1.05) | 1.02 (1.00–1.05) | 1.03 (1.01–1.05) | 1.01 (0.99–1.03) | 1.01 (0.99–1.03) | 1.01 (0.99–1.03) |
| Diabetes mellitus | 1.69 (1.29–2.22) | 1.65 (1.26–2.15) | 1.67 (1.27–2.18) | 2.07 (1.65–2.60) | 2.02 (1.61–2.54) | 2.03 (1.61–2.55) |
| Current smoking | 1.58 (1.17–2.12) | 1.45 (1.07–1.96) | 1.48 (1.09–1.99) | 2.14 (1.67–2.75) | 1.98 (1.54–2.56) | 1.99 (1.54–2.57) |
| Total: HDL ratio, per unit | 1.07 (0.99–1.17) | 1.08 (0.99–1.18) | 1.08 (0.99–1.18) | 1.14 (1.06–1.21) | 1.13 (1.06–1.21) | 1.13 (1.06–1.21) |
| Hypertension | 1.73 (1.34–2.23) | 1.64 (1.27–2.13) | 1.67 (1.29–2.17) | 1.95 (1.55–2.46) | 1.90 (1.51–2.40) | 1.91 (1.51–2.40) |
| Echocardiographic abnormality | ||||||
| LVH or LV dysfunction* | 1.59 (1.10–2.30) | 1.58 (1.15–2.16) | ||||
| LVH* | … | 1.40 (1.01–1.94) | … | 1.05 (0.81–1.36) | … | |
| LV dysfunction* | … | … | 1.70 (1.18–2.45) | … | … | 1.60 (1.18–2.17) |
| Metric | ||||||
| Model Fitness (p for 1 vs 2 & 1 vs 3) | … | <0.003 | <0.007 | … | 0.001 | <0.001 |
| bhtn † | <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 |
| bLVH/LVDYS † | 0.002 | 0.015 | ||||
| bLVH † | … | 0.042 | … | 0.97 | ||
| bLVDYS † | … | 0.004 | … | <0.001 | ||
| C‐Statistic±SE | 0.76±0.027 | 0.75±0.027 | 0.75±0.027 | 0.65±0.021 | 0.65±0.021 | 0.65±0.021 |
We performed 3 tests (1) to compare a model fitness between models 1 vs 2 and 1 vs 3 using likelihood ratio test, (2) tested whether regression coefficient for hypertension, LVH, and LV dysfunction are different from zero, and (3) evaluated the C‐statistic (± SE) for all models. CVD indicates cardiovascular disease; HDL, high‐density lipoprotein; HF, heart failure; LV, left ventricular; and LVH, left ventricular hypertrophy.
*
LVH: LV mass/height2.7 ≥51 g/m2.7; LVDYS: LV systolic dysfunction, ejection fraction <0.50, or fractional shortening <0.29.
†
P values for testing the regression coefficients (bi=0).