Table 2.

Overconfidence and topical misperceptions

	False	Difference score
Overconfidence	0.1123	−0.3667***
	(0.0966)	(0.0604)
Congeniality	0.8557***
	(0.0475)
Overconfidence $\times$	−0.0390
congeniality	(0.1296)
Constant	1.9550***	−0.2223*
	(0.1056)	(0.0932)
Control variables	$✓$	$✓$
Statement fixed effects	$✓$
$R^2$	0.16	0.15
N (statement)	4,872
N (respondent)	2,444	2,904

Cell entries are OLS coefficients. Respondents rated the accuracy of four statements regarding the Kavanaugh appointment on four-point scales. The first model’s outcome variable is perceived accuracy of false statements only. The second model’s outcome variable is the difference in the mean perceived accuracy of true and false statements. The overconfidence measure subtracts the respondent’s actual percentile from their self-rated percentile and is rescaled to range from −1 to 1. Controls: Democrat, Republican, college education, gender, non-White racial background, and age. *$P<0.05$; ***P<0.005 (two-sided).