Table 21:

Clinical Parameters (Technical and Clinical Failures) Used in the Economic Model—Reference Case

	Overall Probability	Lower 95% CI	Upper 95% CI	Potential Occurrence	Distribution	Source
PAE
Technical failure	5.26%a	0%	11.06%	Perioperative	Beta	Gao et al, 201413
Clinical failure				Ongoing	NAb
End of year 2	9.26%c	—	—			Gao et al, 201413
Year 3 to end of time horizon	3.86%d	—	—			Pisco et al, 201668
TURP
Clinical failure				Ongoing	NAb
End of year 2	3.77%c	—	—			Gao et al, 201413
Year 3 to end of time horizon	2.90%d	—	—			Strope et al, 201574

Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; IPSS, International Prostate Symptom Score; NA, not applicable; PAE, prostatic artery embolization; TURP, transurethral resection of the prostate.

^aProbability applied as a one-time probability in the model.

^bThere are no 95% confidence intervals or distributions associated with these probabilities because we calibrated our model parameters against the mean probabilities only.

^cIPSS criteria for clinical failure: decrease in IPSS of ≤ 25% and IPSS ≥ 18. Criteria is based on Gao et al, 2014.¹³ In this model, those meeting both criteria would fail first, followed by those meeting one of the two components (if any).

^dIPSS criteria for clinical failure: decrease in IPSS of ≤ 25% and IPSS ≥ 15. Criteria is based on Pisco et al, 2016.⁶⁸ In this model, those meeting both criteria would fail first, followed by those meeting one of the two components (if any).