Table 3.

Results from mixed model analysis that evaluated the COVID-19 spread with government interventions, their interaction with population mobility patterns, and other factors during the first 4 months of the outbreak.^a

Items	Global, b (95% CI)	Latin America, the Caribbean, and Africa, b (95% CI)		Latin America and the Caribbean, b (95% CI)		Africa, b (95% CI)
Number of days since first case	–0.003 (–0.01 to 0.01)	0.03 (0.00b to 0.06)	0.09 (0.05 to 0.13)		0.02 (–0.05 to 0.09)
Low-level interventions (reference category)	N/Ac	N/A	N/A		N/A
Intermediate-level interventions	–0.90 (–1.23 to –0.56)	0.48 (–0.62 to 1.58)	2.42 (–1.50 to 6.35)		0.41 (–1.20 to 2.03)
High-level interventions	0.88 (0.59 to 1.16)	0.92 (0.35 to 1.49)	2.42 (1.52 to 3.32)		0.90 (–0.19 to 1.98)
Very high–level interventions	0.74 (0.40 to 1.08)	0.27 (–0.39 to 0.94)	1.94 (0.73 to 3.16)		0.25 (–0.88 to 1.39)
Population mobility for food and drug supplies	0.004 (–0.02 to 0.02)	–0.01 (–0.05 to 0.03)	–0.004 (–0.05 to 0.05)		–0.03 (–0.10 to 0.05)
Population mobility to parks/leisure activities	–0.03 (–0.04 to –0.02)	–0.07 (–0.10 to –0.05)	–0.10 (–0.13 to –0.07)		–0.04 (–0.10 to 0.02)
Population mobility to workplace	–0.03 (–0.05 to –0.02)	–0.02 (–0.04 to 0.00b)	–0.003 (–0.02 to 0.01)		–0.05 (–0.09 to –0.01)
Number of days since first case × low-level interventions (reference category)	N/A	N/A	N/A		N/A
Number of days since first case × intermediate-level interventions	0.04 (0.03 to 0.05)	–0.02 (–0.07 to 0.03)	–0.28 (–0.92 to 0.36)		0.0004 (–0.09 to 0.09)
Number of days since first case × high-level interventions	–0.001 (–0.01 to 0.01)	0.002 (–0.03 to 0.03)	–0.06 (–0.10 to –0.02)		0.01 (–0.06 to 0.08)
Number of days since first case × very high–level interventions	0.005 (–0.01 to 0.01)	–0.001 (–0.03 to 0.03)	–0.07 (–0.11 to –0.02)		0.006 (–0.06 to 0.07)
Low-level intervention × population mobility for food and drug supplies (reference category)	N/A	N/A	N/A		N/A
Intermediate-level intervention × population mobility for food and drug supplies	0.02 (–0.00 to 0.04)	0.02 (–0.05 to 0.09)	0.01 (–0.08 to 0.11)		0.05 (–0.09 to 0.18)
High-level intervention × population mobility for food and drug supplies	0.004 (–0.02 to 0.02)	0.03 (–0.00b to 0.07)	0.03 (–0.03 to 0.08)		0.03 (–0.05 to 0.11)
Very high–level intervention × population mobility for food and drug supplies	0.001 (–0.02 to 0.02)	0.02 (–0.02 to 0.05)	–0.003 (–0.05 to 0.05)		0.05 (–0.03 to 0.12)
Low-level intervention × population mobility to visit parks and do leisure activities (reference category)	N/A	N/A	N/A		N/A
Intermediate-level intervention × population mobility to visit parks and do leisure activities	0.02 (0.01 to 0.03)	0.03 (–0.01 to 0.06)	–0.02 (–0.28 to 0.23)		–0.02 (–0.10 to 0.06)
High-level intervention × population mobility to visit parks and do leisure activities	0.02 (0.01 to 0.03)	0.05 (0.02 to 0.07)	0.07 (0.04 to 0.10)		0.04 (–0.02 to 0.11)
Very high–level intervention × population mobility to visit parks and do leisure activities	0.02 (0.01 to 0.03)	0.05 (0.03 to 0.07)	0.09 (0.06 to 0.13)		–0.001 (–0.06 to 0.06)
Low-level intervention × population mobility to workplaces (reference category)	N/A	N/A	N/A		N/A
Intermediate-level intervention × population mobility to workplaces	0.01 (–0.01 to 0.03)	0.03 (–0.03 to 0.08)	0.03 (–0.10 to 0.16)		0.07 (–0.02 to 0.16)
High-level intervention × population mobility to workplaces	0.02 (0.01 to 0.04)	0.01 (–0.01 to 0.03)	0.0004 (–0.02 to 0.02)		0.04 (–0.00b to 0.08)
Very high–level intervention × population mobility to workplaces	0.03 (0.01 to 0.04)	0.02 (–0.00b to 0.03)	–0.0002 (–0.02 to 0.02)		0.04 (–0.00b to 0.08)

^aModels were also adjusted by country income level; preparedness in epidemics (Index for Risk Management); COVID-19 type of transmission (ie, community transmission or local transmission); and COVID-19 testing and tracing policies (in days).

^bThese are values less than 0.005 in absolute numbers.

^cN/A: not applicable.